1175 Joyce Mill Rd · Milton, KY 40006

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

21 ac lot $117/sqft · 37% below area Est $236k · 37% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• 21.76 acres
• 21 acre lot

Tags

• 21.76 ACRES
• MANUFACTURED HOME

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#286 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Trimble County (rural): math 14% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #151 of 165 in KY (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Milton Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 209 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trimble County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,594 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $236,131
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -36.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-25,954
• Equity at exit: $31,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-27,754
• Equity at exit: $28,674

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40006

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $127,096

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-106	+0% $-158	+5% $-209	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-205	+0% $-158	+5% $-110	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-119	base $-158	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

2. 2026-03-20
   price $149,900 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

3. 2026-03-09
   price $165,000 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

4. 2025-11-14
   status Active 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

5. 2025-10-20
   historical 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

6. 2025-08-25
   listed $175,500 Active 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   If you are looking for the peaceful country life, look no further! This farm offers approx 21 acres of mixed flat, hill, and wooded land. Abundance of wildlife including deer and turkey. Approx. 2 acres on the ridge overlooks the farm below, making it a beautiful building site for your dream home. The manufactured home can be remodeled or rented. The front acreage is perfect for entertaining guest or relaxing by the stream and enjoying nature.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $-812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trimble County
• NCES district ID: 2105610
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,287
• Composite: 19.35/100
• National rank: #8790
• State rank: #151 of 165 in KY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #13828

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,900

Population outlook (Trimble County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,783 people
• By 2030: 8,694 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 8,345 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 7,711 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 5,922 · -32.6%
• By 2100: 4,016 · -54.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trimble

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.7% · R 77.3% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+22.0 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.70%
• Current HPI: 238.7591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-14.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $149,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-14 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $175,500 Metro Search MLS