159 Marcellina Dr · Fairview, NC 28730

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2008 2.03 ac lot $205/sqft · 23% below area Est $357k · 23% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 2.03 wooded and private acres in beautiful Fairview, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers peaceful mountain living at its best. Surrounded by mature trees and natural shade, the property provides a serene sense of privacy while still being close to local conveniences. Only 15 minutes to the local grocery store, 30 minutes to downtown Asheville, and 35 minutes to the Asheville Airport. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable and inviting layout with plenty of natural light, spacious bedrooms, and a warm, welcoming feel throughout. Whether you’re enjoying quiet mornings on the screened-in porch, exploring your own wooded retreat, or simply soaking in the tra

Key facts

• Private acres
• Screened-in porch
• Wooded acres

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• PRIVATE ACRES
• SCREENED-IN PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with an annual fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Manufactured doublewide single-family residence; One story; Crawl space foundation
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Metal roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel road access; Private, wooded, sloped lot with green area

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms located on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Ceiling fan(s); no central air
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Living room with a wood-burning fireplace; Ceiling fans installed
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.6% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#369 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Buncombe County Schools (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #72 of 178 in NC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary (math 56% / reading 63%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 659 students, 41% FRL); Cane Creek Middle (math 55% / reading 60%, grade B, #64 of 475 statewide, top 14%, 452 students, 36% FRL); Reynolds High (math 73% / reading 68%, grade B+, #117 of 535 statewide, top 22%, 1,133 students, 42% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Buncombe County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3,305 units permitted in Buncombe County in 2024 (1,855 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buncombe County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,910 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,096
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -22.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,352
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,106
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28730

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $941/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,101

Max offer price $250,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-58	+0% $-136	+5% $-214	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-212	+0% $-136	+5% $-60	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-66	base $-136	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $275,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $275,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $285,000 Active 785-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,314/yr (+$109/mo · 139.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$941
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $-56/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buncombe County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,981
• Composite: 40.32/100
• National rank: #3749
• State rank: #72 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #14604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,213

Population outlook (Buncombe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,475 people
• By 2030: 302,237 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 330,687 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 356,370 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 409,383 · +42.9%
• By 2100: 437,270 · +52.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Buncombe

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.8) · D 61.7% · R 36.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.9pp toward D · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 24.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.8 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+14.6 2012: D+12.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.34%
• Current HPI: 288.6339
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $275,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $285,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $941 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.