5169 S Tomahawk Trl · Webber, MI 49304

$91,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1973 0.64 ac lot Est $168k · 45% under $7/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

Key facts

• Upgraded electrical
• Double lot
• 0.64 acre lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• ACCESS TO MENCH LAKE PARK
• FENCED IN OUTDOOR AREAS
• SPACE TO PARK A CAMPER
• UPGRADED WELL COMPONENTS
• UPGRADED ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association with $80 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; 1-car garage; Carport
• Utilities: High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Built in 1973
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal and rubber roof; Slab basement
• Exterior features: Unimproved road access; Well water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: LP tank is rented; 6 total rooms; Screens, insulated windows, and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baldwin Elementary School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,203 of 1,397 statewide, top 87%, 224 students, 97% FRL); Baldwin Junior High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #466 of 493 statewide, top 95%, 99 students, 98% FRL); Baldwin Senior High School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #481 of 713 statewide, top 81%, 119 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $635 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $92k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,386 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.33%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,168
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4558 W Unora Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+8%)	9mo	$182,000	$182	52
4558 W Unora Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+8%)	9mo	$182,000	$182	51
4827 W Unora Park Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+8%)	11mo	$135,000	$135	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $552
• Equity at exit: $13,703

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $20,280
• Equity at exit: $7,946

Cash invested: $25,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $386/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $91,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $269	+0% $243	+5% $217	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $203	+0% $243	+5% $283	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $266	base $243	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,975
• Closing costs: $2,757
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $91,900 Pending 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $91,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 61 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $91,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 60 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $91,900 Active - Backup Offers Accepted 59 DOM
5. 2026-04-29
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

6. 2026-04-29
   historical Active Under Contract 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

7. 2026-04-29
   historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

8. 2026-04-01
   listed $91,900 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

9. 2026-04-01
   listed $91,900 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

10. 2026-04-01
    listed $91,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (563 chars)

    Cute and cozy home on a double lot with access to Mench Lake park, pavilion and beach! NEW NEW NEW furnace, central air conditioner, pex and fittings, firepit, crushed asphalt driveway, 2 space carport and 14x30 barn/mancave. Upgraded well components, electrical and subfloor. Two fenced in outdoor areas, and space to park a camper. This home has everything you need for fulltime living or a vacation destination. Close to town for restaurants and shopping, trails, fishing and public land. A great place to launch all your outdoor adventures. Come take a look!!

11. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $49,900 Sold
12. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $49,900 Closed
13. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $49,900 Sold
14. 2023-09-01
    soldstatus $49,900
15. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
16. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
17. 2023-08-30
    status Pending
18. 2023-07-12
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
19. 2023-07-12
    historical Accepting Backup Offers
20. 2023-07-12
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted
21. 2023-06-28
    listed $49,900 Active
22. 2023-06-28
    listed $49,900 Active
23. 2023-06-28
    listed $49,900 Active
24. 2018-05-17
    soldstatus $27,000
25. 2018-05-17
    soldstatus $27,000 Sold
26. 2018-05-17
    soldstatus $27,000
27. 2018-04-29
    listed $32,900
28. 2018-04-29
    listed $32,900 Active
29. 2018-04-29
    listed $32,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $386 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 133.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,148
• − Property taxes: −$386
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$2,673
• Taxable income: $1,487
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $2,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Webber

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+179.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $91,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $91,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-01 Listed $91,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $49,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-01 Sold (MLS) $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-30 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-30 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-30 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-07-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-07-12 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-07-12 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $49,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2018-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records
• 2018-05-17 Sold (MLS) $27,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-05-17 Sold (MLS) $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2018-04-29 Listed $32,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-04-29 Listed $32,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-04-29 Listed $32,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $386 · +71.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.