1A Graystone Pl · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$174,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Good condition 6,969 sqft lot 1-car garage $172/sqft · 26% below area Est $234k · 26% under $142/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover effortless living in Crestwood 6. This charming 2-bed, 2-bath residence boasts a rare, private wooded backyard--your own personal nature escape. Featuring a 1-car garage and full laundry room, this home is designed for convenience. Enjoy a true 'lock-and-leave' lifestyle with comprehensive community maintenance including snow removal, lawn care, and termite protection.

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 127 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($275/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.56%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,709
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: -25.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Greenwood Ln Unit B	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,009 (0%)	4mo	$252,000	$250	95
33 Medford Rd Unit A	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-0%)	1mo	$175,000	$174	89
9 Greenwood Ln #62	0.10mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (0%)	2mo	$190,000	$188	88
40 Stonybrook Rd #62	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-0%)	4mo	$150,000	$149	87
19B Medford Rd #61	0.35mi	2/1.0	924 (-8%)	3mo	$171,000	$185	67
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.58mi	2/1.0	965 (-4%)	2mo	$168,000	$174	64
14C Amesbury Rd #64	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,076 (+7%)	1mo	$190,000	$177	59
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+7%)	3mo	$225,000	$209	58
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+7%)	3mo	$205,000	$191	56
5 Berkeley St Unit A	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,098 (+9%)	1mo	$189,900	$173	53
18 Alpine Rd Unit C	0.58mi	2/1.5	880 (-13%)	1mo	$160,000	$182	49
25 Sunset Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,101 (+9%)	5mo	$140,000	$127	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-26,624
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,845
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $199,000 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,731 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$218 /mo · $2,610/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,702

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $83	+0% $23	+5% $-37	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-45	+0% $23	+5% $91	+10% $160
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $67	base $23	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	73d	1	0.63mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	66d	1	0.92mi
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	61d	1	0.98mi
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	48d	1	1.00mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	59d	1	1.02mi
88 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	21d	1	1.10mi
123 Woodchuck Pkwy Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	19d	1	1.13mi
94 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	20d	1	1.13mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	53d	1	1.14mi
9A Juniper Ln Unit 50 Whiting, NJ	1.0	1.0	1009	$1,950	$1.93	93d	1	1.37mi
1 Morning Glory Ln Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.5	1312	$1,200	$0.91	53d	1	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 142

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AC units includedNo fireplacesCrawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

HOA detail $142/mo · $1,704/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removal

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $174,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $174,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $174,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $174,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $174,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $174,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $174,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   pricedays on market $174,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $179,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $179,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $179,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $179,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 102 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $179,000 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $179,000 Active 99 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 98 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $179,000 Active 94 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 93 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 92 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 91 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 90 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 89 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $179,000 Active 88 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $179,000 Active 87 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $179,000 Active 86 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $179,000 Active 85 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $179,000 Active 83 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $179,000 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $179,000 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $179,000 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $179,000 Active 76 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $179,000 Active 75 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $179,000 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $179,000 Active 68 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 67 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 66 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,000 Active 63 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    price $179,000 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,610
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable loss: −$2,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$611
• After-tax cash flow: $886/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,045–$15,135 screening

This charming 2-bedroom home in Crestwood Village offers a private wooded backyard and is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and exterior.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Minor kitchen appliances — basic and outdated

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint exterior — fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping can enhance curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• City population: 34,290
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 142

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: AC units includedNo fireplacesCrawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $179,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $189,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $199,999 MOMLS