1000 Windy Pass #81 · Barstow, CA 92311

$49,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1974 $32/sqft · 99% above area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1974
• Listed 182 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.7% vs local median 4.5% in Barstow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#444 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crestline Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,571 of 1,571 statewide, top 100%, 477 students, 89% FRL); Barstow Junior High (math 4% / reading 13%, grade F, #495 of 498 statewide, top 100%, 742 students, 80% FRL); Barstow High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,584 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $339 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 101.62%
• DSCR: 5.52
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $24,665
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: 98.67%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1000 Windy Pass #156	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	11mo	$23,500	$16	79
1000 Windy Pass #82	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	9mo	$59,000	$41	78
1000 Windy Pass #95	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	6mo	$25,000	$17	75
600 E Rimrock Rd #26	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	13mo	$20,000	$15	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $64,795
• Equity at exit: $7,306

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.68×
• Total profit: $146,598
• Equity at exit: $4,237

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,196	-5% $1,179	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,145	+10% $1,128
Rent	-10% $1,012	-5% $1,087	+0% $1,162	+5% $1,237	+10% $1,312
Rate	-1.0pp $1,187	-0.5pp $1,174	base $1,162	+0.5pp $1,149	+1.0pp $1,136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
936 Pinon Dr Barstow, CA	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,400	$1.36	26d	1	0.21mi
810 Starlight St Barstow, CA	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,895	$1.33	46d	1	0.27mi
332 Date Ave Barstow, CA	4.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	46d	1	0.54mi
1140 Deseret Ave Unit A Barstow, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,550	$1.22	46d	1	0.59mi
937 E Elizabeth St Barstow, CA	4.0	1.0	1422	$2,195	$1.54	6d	1	0.64mi
650 S Muriel Dr Barstow, CA	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,625	$1.23	26d	1	0.88mi
1900 Dill Rd Barstow, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,505	$1.69	0d	8	0.97mi
200 E Elizabeth St Barstow, CA	3.0	1.0	1096	$1,700	$1.55	26d	1	0.98mi
251 Juniper St Unit A Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0	1464	$1,350	$0.92	46d	1	1.00mi
720 Mount Vernon Ave Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0	1172	$1,296	$1.11	14d	1	1.22mi
100 E Fredricks St Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	26d	1	1.44mi
433 Highland Ave Barstow, CA	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,350	$1.31	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $49,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $49,000
18. 2026-02-11
    price $59,000
19. 2026-02-05
    price $60,000
20. 2025-12-22
    listed $67,000 Active
21. 2025-12-11
    historical $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥103°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $13,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,359
• After-tax cash flow: $10,583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Barstow

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #15099

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barstow, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 33,954
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-26.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $49,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $59,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $60,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $67,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Coming Soon $67,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2014): $39 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.