NEWPORT Plan · Supply, NC 28462

$230,990

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Fox Run in Supply, NC Now selling in beautiful Supply, North Carolina, Fox Run offers thoughtfully designed new homes for every stage of life. With a wide variety of floor plans ranging from 989 to 2,203 square feet, this welcoming community features modern layouts, great included features, and our industry-leading Smart Home technology package designed for today's connected lifestyle. Conveniently located off Mt. Pisgah SW in Brunswick County, Fox Run places you close to everything you love about coastal Carolina living.

Key facts

• Nearby shallotte
• Listed 170 days

Tags

• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE
• SHORT DRIVE TO HOLDEN BEACH
• NEARBY SHALLOTTE
• INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY

🏗️ New construction. The $230,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,820.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $231k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Williamson Elem (math 50% / reading 49%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 434 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 738 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $198,137 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,820
• List price: $230,990
• Delta: -16.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
637 Bushy Trail Loop SW	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+2%)	2mo	$283,000	$175	83
661 Bushy Trail Loop SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+6%)	2mo	$302,000	$181	74
4322 Skulk Ln SW	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-15%)	0mo	$270,640	$202	65
1449 Holden Beach Rd SW	0.83mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-1%)	5mo	$300,000	$191	54
2161 Chair Shop Pl SW	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,874 (+18%)	20mo	$200,000	$107	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,976
• Equity at exit: $41,275

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-86,720
• Equity at exit: $23,934

Cash invested: $77,510 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,880 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 122 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 28462

• Active inventory: 738
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,452
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,152/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $226,499

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-156	-5% $-252	+0% $-348	+5% $-443	+10% $-539
Rent	-10% $-504	-5% $-426	+0% $-348	+5% $-269	+10% $-191
Rate	-1.0pp $-208	-0.5pp $-277	base $-348	+0.5pp $-419	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,205
• Closing costs: $8,305
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1594 Holden Beach Rd SW Supply, NC	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	40d	1	0.91mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $225,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (NEWPORT)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,582Address: 4029 Chase Dr SW, Supply, NC 28462

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: NEWPORTActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $230,990 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $230,990 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $230,990 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $230,990 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $230,990 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $230,990 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $230,990 Active 164 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $230,990 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $230,990 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $230,990 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $230,990 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $230,990 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $230,990 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $230,990 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 153 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $230,990 Active 152 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $230,990 Active 151 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $230,990 Active 149 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $230,990 Active 148 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $230,990 Active 147 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $230,990 Active 146 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $230,990 Active 145 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $230,990 Active 144 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $230,990 Active 143 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $230,990 Active 142 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $230,990 Active 141 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $230,990 Active 140 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $230,990 Active 139 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $230,990 Active 138 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $230,990 Active 137 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $230,990 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $230,990 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $230,990 Active 134 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $230,990 Active 133 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $230,990 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $230,990 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $230,990 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $230,990 Active 129 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $230,990 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $230,990 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $230,990 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $230,990 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $230,990 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $230,990 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $230,990 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $230,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,506
• − Property taxes: −$4,152
• − Insurance: −$1,384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − Depreciation: −$8,053
• Taxable loss: −$9,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers modern amenities and a beautiful curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home technology package — Enhances modern living and attracts tech-savvy buyers ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and attracts buyers ↑
• Both Interior updates — Modernizes the interior and attracts buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 43/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Supply Elementary F NC #625/1,410 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Cedar Grove Middle F NC #305/475 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High West Brunswick High C- NC #281/535 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Supply

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brunswick County · 152,111 people
• City population: 12,340
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,340
• Household income: $60,349
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.44%
• Current HPI: 144.2462
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $225,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (NEWPORT)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,582Address: 4029 Chase Dr SW, Supply, NC 28462

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan: NEWPORTActive listing