42 Phillipsport Rd · Cragsmoor, NY 12790

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,554 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1920 0.75 ac lot $209/sqft · 9% below area Est $358k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A gorgeous parcel of property in the quiet town of Wurtsboro awaits you! Positioned minutes away from commuter highways and the ecc;ectic shops that make Wurtsboro famous, this home has a ton of storage space and a huge yard for gatherings and relaxing! Bring your imagination and use it on the large rooms and huge attic space. Yard currently fenced for dog but can easily be removed for more space. On and off street parking, this house appeals to everyone from a fixer upper to the first time home buyer looking to escape upstate.

Key facts

• Huge yard
• Fenced yard
• Large rooms

Tags

• STORAGE SPACE
• HUGE YARD
• LARGE ROOMS
• HUGE ATTIC SPACE
• FENCED YARD
• ON AND OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($449/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,038 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ellenville Central School District (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #534 of 590 in NY (top 90%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellenville Elementary School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Ellenville Junior/Senior High School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 731 students, 64% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ellenville Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $325k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $298,402 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $357,732
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -9.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
66 Thornton Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+2%)	11mo	$415,000	$261	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $179,476
• Equity at exit: $292,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $526,833
• Equity at exit: $631,404

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12790

• Home prices YoY: 26.8%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,763/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,937

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $129	+0% $37	+5% $-55	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-80	+0% $37	+5% $155	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $201	-0.5pp $120	base $37	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30 Doctor Dr Wurtsboro, NY	3.0	2.0	1917	$3,000	$1.56	20d	1	0.13mi
13 Herlings Rd Wurtsboro, NY	4.0	2.0	2054	$2,900	$1.41	20d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   A gorgeous parcel of property in the quiet town of Wurtsboro awaits you! Positioned minutes away from commuter highways and the ecc;ectic shops that make Wurtsboro famous, this home has a ton of storage space and a huge yard for gatherings and relaxing! Bring your imagination and use it on the large rooms and huge attic space. Yard currently fenced for dog but can easily be removed for more space. On and off street parking, this house appeals to everyone from a fixer upper to the first time home buyer looking to escape upstate.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Active 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   A gorgeous parcel of property in the quiet town of Wurtsboro awaits you! Positioned minutes away from commuter highways and the ecc;ectic shops that make Wurtsboro famous, this home has a ton of storage space and a huge yard for gatherings and relaxing! Bring your imagination and use it on the large rooms and huge attic space. Yard currently fenced for dog but can easily be removed for more space. On and off street parking, this house appeals to everyone from a fixer upper to the first time home buyer looking to escape upstate.

3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   A gorgeous parcel of property in the quiet town of Wurtsboro awaits you! Positioned minutes away from commuter highways and the ecc;ectic shops that make Wurtsboro famous, this home has a ton of storage space and a huge yard for gatherings and relaxing! Bring your imagination and use it on the large rooms and huge attic space. Yard currently fenced for dog but can easily be removed for more space. On and off street parking, this house appeals to everyone from a fixer upper to the first time home buyer looking to escape upstate.

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $325,000 Active 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   A gorgeous parcel of property in the quiet town of Wurtsboro awaits you! Positioned minutes away from commuter highways and the ecc;ectic shops that make Wurtsboro famous, this home has a ton of storage space and a huge yard for gatherings and relaxing! Bring your imagination and use it on the large rooms and huge attic space. Yard currently fenced for dog but can easily be removed for more space. On and off street parking, this house appeals to everyone from a fixer upper to the first time home buyer looking to escape upstate.

5. 2014-06-18
   soldstatus $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,763 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,763 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$5,763
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,865
• − Management: −$2,865
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$4,968
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,192
• After-tax cash flow: $1,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellenville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610500
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,937
• Composite: 33.22/100
• National rank: #5525
• State rank: #534 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cragsmoor

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1038
• US rank: #20070

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing D Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 435
• Population (ZIP): 4,341

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Slovak 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 95.79%
• Current HPI: 452.7233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+231.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,763 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.