421 Holly St · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 974 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1922 0.33 ac lot $67/sqft · 31% below area Est $97k · 33% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment property which means AS-IS. Some rehab work has been done. All building materials will be left to help new owner with rehab. Seller is only responsible for his tools that are in the garage. Beautiful view from the front porch on top of the hill. Minutes from downtown, hiking trails and stores. If purchased with property 419 Holly St. total list price is 130k. 419 Holley St. is listed for 65K

Key facts

• Stores
• Hiking trails
• Detached

Tags

• VIEW FROM THE FRONT PORCH
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN
• HIKING TRAILS
• STORES
• DETACHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($977 rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.42%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,408
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -33.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Pullman St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+4%)	5mo	$145,000	$144	72
111 Hallman St	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,074 (+10%)	12mo	$92,500	$86	69
131 Magnolia St	0.34mi	2/1.0	902 (-7%)	6mo	$105,000	$116	66
622 Park Ave	0.44mi	2/1.5	988 (+1%)	11mo	$92,000	$93	66
204 Bower St	0.33mi	2/1.0	896 (-8%)	8mo	$41,500	$46	65
304 Bower St	0.29mi	2/1.0	909 (-7%)	14mo	$96,000	$106	64
104 State St	0.44mi	2/2.0	980 (+1%)	14mo	$134,500	$137	63
119 Pullman Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,068 (+10%)	5mo	$143,000	$134	57
508 Bower St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-9%)	13mo	$30,000	$34	55
202 Bower St	0.34mi	2/1.0	832 (-15%)	9mo	$36,000	$43	53
205 Reid St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,106 (+14%)	1mo	$168,000	$152	51
116 Harrell	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,102 (+13%)	8mo	$152,500	$138	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $17,491
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $62,120
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $977 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $221/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $404	+0% $386	+5% $367	+10% $349
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $347	+0% $386	+5% $424	+10% $463
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $402	base $386	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Breeze St Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	24d	1	0.31mi
120 Greenway St Unit 1 Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	45d	1	0.51mi
1007 Park Ave Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0	1.0	668	$952	$1.43	45d	1	0.62mi
103 Juniper Pl Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	45d	1	0.79mi
605 Hig Fry Rd Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,400	$1.74	24d	1	1.01mi
405 Spring St Unit 2 Hot Springs, AR	1.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	1.33mi
315 Convention Blvd Hot Springs, AR	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	45d	4	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $65,000 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Investment property which means AS-IS. Some rehab work has been done. All building materials will be left to help new owner with rehab. Seller is only responsible for his tools that are in the garage. Beautiful view from the front porch on top of the hill. Minutes from downtown, hiking trails and stores. If purchased with property 419 Holly St. total list price is 130k. 419 Holley St. is listed for 65K

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $80,000 New Listing 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Investment property which means AS-IS. Some rehab work has been done. All building materials will be left to help new owner with rehab. Seller is only responsible for his tools that are in the garage. Beautiful view from the front porch on top of the hill. Minutes from downtown, hiking trails and stores. If purchased with property 419 Holly St. total list price is 130k. 419 Holley St. is listed for 65K

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $221 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$195/yr (+$16/mo · 87.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$221
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$938
• − Management: −$938
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$905
• After-tax cash flow: $3,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $80,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $221 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.