25 Lincolnshire Rd · Webster, NY 14580

$289,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,621 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1960 0.37 ac lot $179/sqft · 13% below area Est $333k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owned & loved for 43 yrs! Tons of upgrades: New architectural tear off roof, new windows, new gutters, new electric service, furnace 2000, hot water tank 2002-you have to come see the layout and wonderful places to come and relax. Enclosed front porch, family room, 1/2 bath, dinette, formal dining rm, huge living rm, outside concrete patio. Did I mention the incredible landscaping!

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Updated kitchen
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• PATIO OVERLOOKS BACKYARD
• ENCLOSED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Two-story home; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Cedar construction elements; Blown-in insulation; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Patio; Play structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include bedroom spaces (7 total rooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Window treatments and drapes; Thermal windows; Programmable thermostat; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (laundry located in basement); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Webster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#221 in NY, #3,471 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, amenities F.
• Webster Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #184 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $290k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $246,366 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,507
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -12.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Maryvale Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-2%)	4mo	$330,000	$207	87
90 Hefner Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,638 (+1%)	7mo	$355,000	$217	70
49 Lincolnshire Rd	0.16mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,524 (-6%)	12mo	$360,521	$237	68
27 Kathrene Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-5%)	15mo	$305,000	$198	66
32 Hawley Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,692 (+4%)	7mo	$330,000	$195	66
239 London Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+8%)	8mo	$325,000	$186	64
22 Fuller Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (-2%)	18mo	$330,000	$208	60
1258 State Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,723 (+6%)	6mo	$330,000	$192	59
143 London Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,464 (-10%)	7mo	$220,000	$150	57
56 Cedarway Cir	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,537 (-5%)	11mo	$467,500	$304	56
7 Kathrene Ct	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,416 (-13%)	17mo	$306,000	$216	54
1020 Silvercrest Dr Dr	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,864 (+15%)	11mo	$350,000	$188	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-62,235
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-77,688
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14580

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,276/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,739

Max offer price $251,438

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-54	-5% $-136	+0% $-218	+5% $-300	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-412	-5% $-315	+0% $-218	+5% $-120	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-144	base $-218	+0.5pp $-293	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Breno Dr Webster, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,330	$2.04	4d	14	0.75mi
1419 Ridge Rd Unit 155 RC Webster, NY	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,750	$1.65	25d	1	0.78mi
155 Redon Cir Webster, NY	3.0	2.5	1670	$2,750	$1.65	25d	1	0.80mi
1205 Rousseau Dr Webster, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,696	$2.36	4d	3	1.38mi
77 Deerhurst Ln Webster, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1070	$2,000	$1.87	4d	21	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $289,900 Active 1238-char remark
2. 2013-09-23
   soldstatus $142,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Owned & loved for 43 yrs! Tons of upgrades: New architectural tear off roof, new windows, new gutters, new electric service, furnace 2000, hot water tank 2002-you have to come see the layout and wonderful places to come and relax. Enclosed front porch, family room, 1/2 bath, dinette, formal dining rm, huge living rm, outside concrete patio. Did I mention the incredible landscaping!

3. 2013-09-23
   soldstatus $142,500

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Owned & loved for 43 yrs! Tons of upgrades: New architectural tear off roof, new windows, new gutters, new electric service, furnace 2000, hot water tank 2002-you have to come see the layout and wonderful places to come and relax. Enclosed front porch, family room, 1/2 bath, dinette, formal dining rm, huge living rm, outside concrete patio. Did I mention the incredible landscaping!

4. 2013-07-10
   listed $144,900 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Owned & loved for 43 yrs! Tons of upgrades: New architectural tear off roof, new windows, new gutters, new electric service, furnace 2000, hot water tank 2002-you have to come see the layout and wonderful places to come and relax. Enclosed front porch, family room, 1/2 bath, dinette, formal dining rm, huge living rm, outside concrete patio. Did I mention the incredible landscaping!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,276 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,276 · $523/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$6,276
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,365
• − Management: −$2,365
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,815
• After-tax cash flow: $-797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Webster Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630360
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $71,221
• Composite: 55.18/100
• National rank: #1273
• State rank: #184 of 590 in NY

Livability — Webster

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #3471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Webster, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 74,252
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 54,180
• Household income: $98,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1325.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.52%
• Current HPI: 266.2145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.38%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+100.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $289,900 UNYREIS
• 2013-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2013-09-23 Sold (MLS) $142,500 UNYREIS
• 2013-07-10 Listed $144,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,276 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.