45 International Blvd · Temelec, CA 95476

$314,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2006 $192/sqft · 12% above area Est $279k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with both bedrooms featuring private ensuite bathrooms. The open great room creates a comfortable gathering space, complemented by an additional TV room, den, or home office perfect for flexible living. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an additional dressing area or extra closet space. Step outside to a peaceful backyard deck overlooking the creek, an ideal spot to relax and enjoy the natural setting. The home sits set back from the road, creating a wonderful sense of privacy, and includes a rare side-by-side two-car carport along with a privacy fence for added comfort and convenience. Interior was freshly painted-neutral tones.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Tv room
• Side-by-side carport

Tags

• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATHROOMS
• GREAT ROOM
• TV ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• BACKYARD DECK
• SIDE-BY-SIDE CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $314k).
• Recommended offer: $295k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#811 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,160 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.07%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,298
• List price: $314,000
• Delta: 12.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Cabrillo Plz	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,632 (0%)	10mo	$312,000	$191	90
132 Bear Flag Rd	0.17mi	2/3.0	1,617 (-1%)	4mo	$437,750	$271	83
162 Bear Flag Rd	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	7mo	$262,000	$171	81
46 International Blvd	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	1mo	$189,000	$131	79
230 E Seven Flags Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,580 (-3%)	9mo	$159,950	$101	76
52 Portola Cir	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-3%)	14mo	$345,000	$217	76
145 Bear Flag Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-6%)	2mo	$289,880	$189	74
33 Benicia Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,488 (-9%)	10mo	$200,000	$134	73
123 Bear Flag Rd	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-6%)	9mo	$200,000	$130	72
106 Drake Mews # 106	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	5mo	$288,000	$200	69
282 Paseo Bolivar	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-11%)	4mo	$365,000	$251	68
284 Paseo Bolivar	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,505 (-8%)	14mo	$368,000	$245	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-11,170
• Equity at exit: $46,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $22,233
• Equity at exit: $27,149

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $804/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $738

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $314,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $915	-5% $826	+0% $738	+5% $649	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $479	-5% $608	+0% $738	+5% $867	+10% $996
Rate	-1.0pp $896	-0.5pp $817	base $738	+0.5pp $656	+1.0pp $573

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Contingent (Show) 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Spacious and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with both bedrooms featuring private ensuite bathrooms. The open great room creates a comfortable gathering space, complemented by an additional TV room, den, or home office perfect for flexible living. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an additional dressing area or extra closet space. Step outside to a peaceful backyard deck overlooking the creek, an ideal spot to relax and enjoy the natural setting. The home sits set back from the road, creating a wonderful sense of privacy, and includes a rare side-by-side two-car carport along with a privacy fence for added comfort and convenience. Interior was freshly painted-neutral tones.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $314,000 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Spacious and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with both bedrooms featuring private ensuite bathrooms. The open great room creates a comfortable gathering space, complemented by an additional TV room, den, or home office perfect for flexible living. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an additional dressing area or extra closet space. Step outside to a peaceful backyard deck overlooking the creek, an ideal spot to relax and enjoy the natural setting. The home sits set back from the road, creating a wonderful sense of privacy, and includes a rare side-by-side two-car carport along with a privacy fence for added comfort and convenience. Interior was freshly painted-neutral tones.

3. 2026-03-14
   listed $349,000 Active 694-char remark

   Show marketing remark (694 chars)

   Spacious and inviting 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with both bedrooms featuring private ensuite bathrooms. The open great room creates a comfortable gathering space, complemented by an additional TV room, den, or home office perfect for flexible living. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an additional dressing area or extra closet space. Step outside to a peaceful backyard deck overlooking the creek, an ideal spot to relax and enjoy the natural setting. The home sits set back from the road, creating a wonderful sense of privacy, and includes a rare side-by-side two-car carport along with a privacy fence for added comfort and convenience. Interior was freshly painted-neutral tones.

4. 2009-01-10
   price $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $804 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,386 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,583/yr (+$132/mo · 196.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$804
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable income: $3,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$923
• After-tax cash flow: $7,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Temelec

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #811
• US rank: #22885

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temelec, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $314,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $349,000 BAREIS
• 2009-01-10 Price Changed $199,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $804 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.