436 Pace · San Antonio, TX 78207

$54,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 447 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 363 Days on market

Built 1924 2,700 sqft lot $123/sqft · 32% below area Est $81k · 32% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. 1 Story, 1 Bed, 1 Bath home ready for your next renovation. This home needs work throughout but once completed could be your next investment or your cozy home. Come see today!

Key facts

• 2,700 sq ft lot
• Built 1924
• Listed 363 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($810 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.01%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,058
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: -32.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
237 Rounds	0.17mi	1/1.0	400 (-10%)	20mo	$29,000	$73	58
506 N Chupaderas St	0.24mi	1/1.0	504 (+13%)	15mo	$95,000	$188	55
504 Albert	0.72mi	2/1.0 (+1)	480 (+7%)	12mo	$59,000	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $47,854
• Equity at exit: $49,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.11×
• Total profit: $139,991
• Equity at exit: $106,659

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78207

• Home prices YoY: 15.2%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $810 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,337/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $534

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Jesus Aly Unit 3 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	300	$600	$2.00	17d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-06-13
   price $54,900 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. 1 Story, 1 Bed, 1 Bath home ready for your next renovation. This home needs work throughout but once completed could be your next investment or your cozy home. Come see today!

2. 2025-05-28
   listed $59,000 New 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   SOLD AS-IS WHERE IS. 1 Story, 1 Bed, 1 Bath home ready for your next renovation. This home needs work throughout but once completed could be your next investment or your cozy home. Come see today!

3. 2005-09-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,723
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$1,337
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$778
• − Management: −$778
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $1,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$452
• After-tax cash flow: $2,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,474
• Household income: $32,472
• Rent vs Own: 59.7% rent · 40.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2789.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 41% White 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.92%
• Current HPI: 264.7559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.73%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $54,900 LERA
• 2025-05-28 Listed $59,000 LERA
• 2005-09-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,337 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.