4119 Fairgreen Ln · Houston, TX 77047

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1967 9,583 sqft lot $57/sqft · 35% below area Est $246k · 35% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Public Notice to ALL Investors!! Welcome to Fairgreen Lane in one of Houston's up-and-coming areas. This is home GREAT for an investor or someone looking to put in extra work to make this home shine like the hidden gem that it is. This home boasts over 2800 sq ft and proudly sits on a 9,000 sq ft lot. This home has the potential to be the most prominent home in the neighborhood and it is priced to sell quickly!

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.98%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,646
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -34.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12503 Leitrim Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	3,085 (+10%)	18mo	$249,000	$81	57
13002 Donegal Way	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,619 (-7%)	23mo	$359,000	$137	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $20,673
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $57,349
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77047

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,464/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,723

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $948	-5% $903	+0% $858	+5% $812	+10% $767
Rent	-10% $636	-5% $747	+0% $858	+5% $969	+10% $1,080
Rate	-1.0pp $938	-0.5pp $898	base $858	+0.5pp $816	+1.0pp $774

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	44d	1	0.31mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	0.86mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	0d	1	0.87mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	0.92mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-21
    price $169,000 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Public Notice to ALL Investors!! Welcome to Fairgreen Lane in one of Houston's up-and-coming areas. This is home GREAT for an investor or someone looking to put in extra work to make this home shine like the hidden gem that it is. This home boasts over 2800 sq ft and proudly sits on a 9,000 sq ft lot. This home has the potential to be the most prominent home in the neighborhood and it is priced to sell quickly!

14. 2026-04-17
    listed $183,000 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Public Notice to ALL Investors!! Welcome to Fairgreen Lane in one of Houston's up-and-coming areas. This is home GREAT for an investor or someone looking to put in extra work to make this home shine like the hidden gem that it is. This home boasts over 2800 sq ft and proudly sits on a 9,000 sq ft lot. This home has the potential to be the most prominent home in the neighborhood and it is priced to sell quickly!

15. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,464 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$5,464
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $8,430
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,023
• After-tax cash flow: $8,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,987
• Household income: $78,538
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1109.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% White 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.76%
• Current HPI: 239.2287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $183,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,464 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.