303 Church St · Old Forge, PA 18518

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute home with 2bedrooms, one is a walk through, modern kitchen and bath, large lot, fenced yard. Hud owned property being sold in as is condition, for additional information and to place an offer go to www. hudhomestore. gov, case #446-592693buyer pays all transfer tax , deed prep and occupancy fees

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Large lot
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• FENCED YARD
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Baseboard heat
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Dirt-floored basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 6.1% in Old Forge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#287 in PA, #2,531 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Old Forge SD (suburban): math 22% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #409 of 539 in PA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 251 units permitted in Lackawanna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Lackawanna County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.33%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $43,481
• Equity at exit: $48,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $111,145
• Equity at exit: $85,071

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18518

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $393	+0% $364	+5% $334	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $316	+0% $364	+5% $411	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $385	base $364	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
304 Vine St Unit 304 Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.21mi
114 William St Unit 2 Old Forge, PA	1.0	1.0	741	$1,150	$1.55	44d	1	0.28mi
112 William St Unit 1 Old Forge, PA	1.0	1.0	627	$1,100	$1.75	44d	1	0.28mi
513 Oak St Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	44d	1	0.31mi
202 Moosic Rd Unit 1 Old Forge, PA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,050	$1.68	14d	1	0.51mi
1213 Lori Dr Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,250	$1.69	14d	1	0.59mi
1215 Lori Dr Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	740	$1,100	$1.49	14d	1	0.59mi
531 S Main St Old Forge, PA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,090	$1.82	14d	1	0.76mi
128-130 Henderson St Old Forge, PA	1.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	22d	1	0.94mi
152 Drakes Ln Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	979	$1,700	$1.74	14d	1	1.12mi
864 S Main St #3 Old Forge, PA	2.0	1.0	965	$1,350	$1.40	14d	1	1.18mi
652 Marion Ln Moosic, PA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $85,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 301-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,156
• − Management: −$1,156
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$768
• After-tax cash flow: $3,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Old Forge SD
• NCES district ID: 4218120
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $49,409
• Composite: 30.6/100
• National rank: #6196
• State rank: #409 of 539 in PA

Livability — Old Forge

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #2531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Forge, PA
• City population: 8,533
• Population (ZIP): 8,533

Population outlook (Lackawanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 210,652 people
• By 2030: 208,623 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 203,980 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 201,069 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 205,026 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 210,851 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lackawanna

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 48.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.0pp · 2024: 2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+3.4 2012: D+27.4 2008: D+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.15%
• Current HPI: 242.2839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+13.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $85,000 LCAR
• 2023-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $150,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-21 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $145,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-07-26 Listed $160,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-03-29 Sold (MLS) $87,300 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-03-02 Pending — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-03-02 Relisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-03-01 Delisted — GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2022-01-06 Price Changed $99,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-12-15 Price Changed $107,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $111,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-11-13 Price Changed $119,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2021-10-13 Listed $123,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-10-29 Listed $71,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2005-06-22 Listed $74,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+37.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $39,733 · +2693.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.