953 Carroll Ave · St. Paul, MN 55104

$325,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1904 4,965 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home at 953 Carroll Ave offers over 1,500 above-ground finished square feet with thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy refinished hardwood floors and a highly desirable layout featuring 3 bedrooms on one level. The main floor includes a flexible bedroom with a new ensuite ½ bath, plus convenient main floor laundry. The kitchen is equipped with an expansive pantry, new gas range and dishwasher, while major updates like Hardie siding and a new roof provide peace of mind. Outside, a paver patio and fully fenced backyard showcases established perennial gardens and flowering bushes - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. You'll also appreciate the detached garage and additional off-street parking during the winter months. Ideally located with easy freeway access and just minutes from the dining and shopping of Cathedral Hill.

Key facts

• 4,965 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1904

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $316k (2.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $316k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maxfield Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #849 of 857 statewide, top 100%, 355 students, 94% FRL); Hidden River Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #199 of 258 statewide, top 78%, 559 students, 61% FRL); Central Senior High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #46 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,691 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,159/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $222k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $315,884 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,430
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-17,257
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55104

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$392 /mo · $4,708/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $447	-5% $355	+0% $263	+5% $171	+10% $79
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $139	+0% $263	+5% $388	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $346	base $263	+0.5pp $179	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	3d	23	1.15mi
1555 Selby Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$4,394	$3.89	0d	6	1.29mi
150 Snelling Ave N St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$2,598	$3.51	3d	8	1.36mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 890-char remark

   Show marketing remark (890 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home at 953 Carroll Ave offers over 1,500 above-ground finished square feet with thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy refinished hardwood floors and a highly desirable layout featuring 3 bedrooms on one level. The main floor includes a flexible bedroom with a new ensuite ½ bath, plus convenient main floor laundry. The kitchen is equipped with an expansive pantry, new gas range and dishwasher, while major updates like Hardie siding and a new roof provide peace of mind. Outside, a paver patio and fully fenced backyard showcases established perennial gardens and flowering bushes - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. You'll also appreciate the detached garage and additional off-street parking during the winter months. Ideally located with easy freeway access and just minutes from the dining and shopping of Cathedral Hill.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $325,000 890-char remark

   Show marketing remark (890 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home at 953 Carroll Ave offers over 1,500 above-ground finished square feet with thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy refinished hardwood floors and a highly desirable layout featuring 3 bedrooms on one level. The main floor includes a flexible bedroom with a new ensuite ½ bath, plus convenient main floor laundry. The kitchen is equipped with an expansive pantry, new gas range and dishwasher, while major updates like Hardie siding and a new roof provide peace of mind. Outside, a paver patio and fully fenced backyard showcases established perennial gardens and flowering bushes - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. You'll also appreciate the detached garage and additional off-street parking during the winter months. Ideally located with easy freeway access and just minutes from the dining and shopping of Cathedral Hill.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $350,000 Active 890-char remark

   Show marketing remark (890 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home at 953 Carroll Ave offers over 1,500 above-ground finished square feet with thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy refinished hardwood floors and a highly desirable layout featuring 3 bedrooms on one level. The main floor includes a flexible bedroom with a new ensuite ½ bath, plus convenient main floor laundry. The kitchen is equipped with an expansive pantry, new gas range and dishwasher, while major updates like Hardie siding and a new roof provide peace of mind. Outside, a paver patio and fully fenced backyard showcases established perennial gardens and flowering bushes - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. You'll also appreciate the detached garage and additional off-street parking during the winter months. Ideally located with easy freeway access and just minutes from the dining and shopping of Cathedral Hill.

4. 2026-04-15
   historical $350,000 890-char remark

   Show marketing remark (890 chars)

   Charming and move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home at 953 Carroll Ave offers over 1,500 above-ground finished square feet with thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy refinished hardwood floors and a highly desirable layout featuring 3 bedrooms on one level. The main floor includes a flexible bedroom with a new ensuite ½ bath, plus convenient main floor laundry. The kitchen is equipped with an expansive pantry, new gas range and dishwasher, while major updates like Hardie siding and a new roof provide peace of mind. Outside, a paver patio and fully fenced backyard showcases established perennial gardens and flowering bushes - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. You'll also appreciate the detached garage and additional off-street parking during the winter months. Ideally located with easy freeway access and just minutes from the dining and shopping of Cathedral Hill.

5. 2019-06-10
   soldstatus $222,000
6. 2019-06-04
   soldstatus $222,000 Sold 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Sold before print

7. 2019-05-11
   status Pending 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Sold before print

8. 2019-05-06
   listed Contingent - Inspection 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Sold before print

9. 2019-05-06
   listed $222,000 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   Sold before print

10. 2016-09-01
    soldstatus $170,000
11. 2016-08-19
    soldstatus $170,000 Sold
12. 2016-07-29
    status Pending
13. 2016-07-21
    historical Contingent - Inspection
14. 2016-06-29
    price $172,000
15. 2016-06-10
    price $179,900
16. 2016-05-19
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2014-07-31
    soldstatus $90,000
18. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
19. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2014-07-18
    soldstatus $90,000
21. 2014-05-02
    historical Contingent - Third Party Approval
22. 2014-04-24
    status Active
23. 2014-03-06
    price $85,000
24. 2014-03-06
    status Pending
25. 2013-11-07
    historical Contingent - Other
26. 2013-11-01
    price $89,000
27. 2013-10-24
    listed $99,000 Active
28. 2013-10-24
    listed $85,000
29. 2013-10-24
    listed $85,000
30. 2004-07-29
    soldstatus $180,900
31. 2004-05-03
    soldstatus $180,900
32. 2004-03-15
    historical
33. 2004-03-08
    listed $175,900
34. 1999-11-25
    soldstatus $108,643
35. 1999-10-19
    historical
36. 1999-09-02
    listed $106,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,708 · $392/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,708 · $392/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,708
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,032
• − Management: −$3,032
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$516
• After-tax cash flow: $3,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,762
• Household income: $75,712
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -532.26%
• Current HPI: 245.6146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+204.0% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Coming Soon $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-04 Sold (MLS) $222,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Listed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Listed $222,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-19 Sold (MLS) $170,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-21 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-29 Price Changed $172,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-10 Price Changed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-19 Listed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 LSAR
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 RASM
• 2014-07-18 Sold (MLS) $90,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-06 Price Changed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-07 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-01 Price Changed $89,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Listed $99,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-24 Listed $85,000 LSAR
• 2013-10-24 Listed $85,000 RASM
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $180,900 Public Records
• 2004-05-03 Sold (MLS) $180,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-08 Listed $175,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-11-25 Sold (MLS) $108,643 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-02 Listed $106,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,708 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.