7887 Pettytown Rd · Red Rock, TX 78662

$220,000

None bd · None ba · 804 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1950 3.48 ac lot $274/sqft · 43% below area Est $386k · 43% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could b e a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Built ins
• Small barn

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• BUILT INS
• 3.4 ACRES
• WOODED AREA
• SMALL BARN
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
• Cap rate -1.6% vs local median 1.8% in Red Rock — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.00% ✗
• Cap rate: -1.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -28.17%
• DSCR: -0.25
• GRM: 0.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $386,287
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -43.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-118,155
• Equity at exit: $43,068

10-year hold

• IRR: -69.1%
• Equity multiple: -2.46×
• Total profit: $-213,057
• Equity at exit: $37,130

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78662

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 54

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $0 none
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,410/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$0
• Net cashflow: $-1,446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price —

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,322	-5% $-1,384	+0% $-1,446	+5% $-1,508	+10% $-1,571
Rent	-10% $-1,446	-5% $-1,446	+0% $-1,446	+5% $-1,446	+10% $-1,446
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,335	-0.5pp $-1,390	base $-1,446	+0.5pp $-1,503	+1.0pp $-1,561

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $220,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 413 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 412 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 411 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 408 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 407 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 406 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 405 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 404 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $220,000 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could b e a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

17. 2025-11-21
    price $220,000 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper Farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could be a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

18. 2025-07-11
    price $250,000

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper Farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could be a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

19. 2025-07-11
    price $250,000 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper Farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could be a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

20. 2025-04-22
    listed $275,000 Active 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper Farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could be a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

21. 2025-04-22
    listed $275,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    Great opportunity for old 2/1 fixer upper Farm house on 3.4 acres located in nice wooded area. Home and barns need work and clean up but could be a great weekend place in the country. Old farm home has some wood floors, some built ins and porches. Property surrounded by larger farms and very remote but convenient to Austin, Bastrop, and Lockhart. 3.4 acres mostly wooded with lots of wildlife. Small barn with carport and separate storage building. No restrictions and not located in a subdivision. Paved county road frontage.

22. 1993-11-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,410 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,616/yr (+$135/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $0
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,410
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$0
• − Management: −$0
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$22,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,336
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Red Rock

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,147
• Population (ZIP): 3,147

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Current HPI: 352.5129
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $220,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $220,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $250,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $250,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $275,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 1993-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,410 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.