12003 Highway 188 · Grand Bay, AL 36541

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 211 Days on market

Built 1995 0.61 ac lot $94/sqft · 34% below area Est $196k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 1995
• Listed 211 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.5% in Grand Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#103 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cora Castlen Elementary (math 33% / reading 63%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 439 students, 64% FRL); Grand Bay Middle School (math 8% / reading 38%, grade F, #176 of 257 statewide, top 70%, 794 students, 64% FRL); Alma Bryant High School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #184 of 305 statewide, top 61%, 1,617 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.35%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,608
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -33.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12140 Ladner Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,377 (0%)	1mo	$240,000	$174	86
12102 Ladner Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-4%)	13mo	$203,000	$153	71
12301 Oakdale Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	3mo	$174,000	$145	50
12330 Diffee Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,525 (+11%)	9mo	$162,000	$106	42
10815 Douglas Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-14%)	20mo	$155,000	$131	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $844
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $28,892
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36541

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,065

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $417	-5% $381	+0% $344	+5% $307	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $285	+0% $344	+5% $403	+10% $462
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $377	base $344	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12180 Franklin Creek Ct Grand Bay, AL	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,500	$1.12	15d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-27
   price $129,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

2. 2026-04-19
   status Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

3. 2026-04-12
   historical Active Under Contract 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

4. 2026-03-06
   price $139,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

5. 2026-01-30
   price $154,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

6. 2025-12-30
   price $164,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

7. 2025-11-28
   price $174,900 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

8. 2025-10-27
   listed $184,900 Active 151-char remark

   Show marketing remark (151 chars)

   ( void where prohibited ) Seller will review offers through auction site as well as through listing agent. Auction site Hubzu Https://www.hubzu.com/

9. 2022-09-26
   soldstatus $170,000
10. 2022-09-16
    soldstatus $170,000 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    This beautiful brick home will keep your family cool in the summer with a new central air conditioner and warm in the winter with energy efficient central electric heat. Updated interior with new paint and new luxury plank flooring. It has a spacious living room, a large kitchen with eat in dining area, refrigerator, dishwasher and electric range. The master bedroom has lots of closet space and private bath with shower/tub enclosure. The interior utility room is big enough for a freezer or extra fridge. The home sits on a large lot with a fenced in backyard perfect for BBQ’s, bouncy house birthday parties, veggie garden and outdoor puppy dogs. There is also a front deck for watching the world pass by. If you are looking for a place to call home this is it! This home is sure to go fast and is only available to buyers who acts quickly.

11. 2009-03-27
    soldstatus $65,000
12. 2005-04-22
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$515
• After-tax cash flow: $3,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Grand Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #11625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Bay, AL
• City population: 16,353
• Population (ZIP): 16,353

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 208.4722
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+299.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $129,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — GCMLS AL
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $139,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $154,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $164,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $174,900 GCMLS AL
• 2025-10-27 Listed $184,900 GCMLS AL
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $170,000 GCMLS AL
• 2009-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.