612 Elizabeth St · Paducah, KY 42003

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1940 7,841 sqft lot $135/sqft · 285% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features beautiful wood floors that add warmth and character throughout. Brand new heating and air and the roof is only 2 years old, offering energy efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. The functional layout provides a comfortable living area, spacious bedrooms, and great natural light. The kitchen comes complete with stove and refrigerator, making this home truly ready for its next owner. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a strong investment opportunity, this property checks the boxes. Conveniently located in Paducah near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Affordable, well-maintained, and ready to go — schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Roof 2 years old
• Wood floors
• Functional layout

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• NEW HEATING AND AIR
• ROOF 2 YEARS OLD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.5% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $135k implies a 621% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,759 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.58%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,507
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: 156.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Clements St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,039 (+4%)	10mo	$91,000	$88	65
1249 S 7th St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (+14%)	5mo	$30,000	$26	58
1512 S 5th St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+12%)	20mo	$35,000	$31	54
146 Clements St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,045 (+4%)	20mo	$104,000	$100	51
290 Clements St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+14%)	5mo	$106,000	$93	50
616 Mckinley St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	20mo	$70,000	$81	50
289 Clements St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+4%)	24mo	$85,000	$82	48
1433 Little Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-10%)	2mo	$112,000	$124	43
1428 Little Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	14mo	$74,000	$77	42
164 Woodward St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,133 (+13%)	15mo	$132,500	$117	38
1942 Hendricks St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+15%)	18mo	$94,000	$82	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $19,425
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $70,160
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $741	-5% $694	+0% $648	+5% $601	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $490	-5% $569	+0% $648	+5% $727	+10% $806
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $682	base $648	+0.5pp $613	+1.0pp $577

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 N 6th St #100 Paducah, KY	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $134,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $134,900 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Move-in ready and full of charm! This 3 bedroom, 1 bath home features beautiful wood floors that add warmth and character throughout. Brand new heating and air and the roof is only 2 years old, offering energy efficiency and peace of mind for years to come. The functional layout provides a comfortable living area, spacious bedrooms, and great natural light. The kitchen comes complete with stove and refrigerator, making this home truly ready for its next owner. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for a strong investment opportunity, this property checks the boxes. Conveniently located in Paducah near shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Affordable, well-maintained, and ready to go — schedule your showing today!

17. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus $18,700
18. 2002-06-14
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $5,981
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $6,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• City population: 30,856
• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+542.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $134,900 WKRMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,700 Public Records
• 2002-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $75 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.