1903 Jay St · Walnut Ridge, AR 72476

$119,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Est $144k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Solid brick construction, a spacious floor plan, and a large fenced backyard make this Walnut Ridge home a must-see. Featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and approximately 1,256 square feet, the home offers a comfortable living room, dedicated dining space, and plenty of cabinet storage in the kitchen. The attached carport adds convenience, while the backyard provides room to relax, entertain, or enjoy outdoor activities. Whether you're looking for your first home, an investment property, or a place to simplify life, this move-in-ready property offers comfort, value, and practicality in one package. Home is occupied. Rooms may contain personal belongings not shown in listing photos.

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Brick construction
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• FENCED BACKYARD
• DEDICATED DINING SPACE
• PLENTY OF CABINET STORAGE
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• MOVE-IN-READY PROPERTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax: $450

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fencing; Level lot; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (0.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.3% in Walnut Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#351 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #188 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Ridge Elementary School (math 26% / reading 20%, grade F, #363 of 454 statewide, top 80%, 580 students, 58% FRL); Walnut Ridge High School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #182 of 292 statewide, top 63%, 462 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $120k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,708 (0.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,440
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1603 Jay St	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,247 (-1%)	4mo	$95,000	$76	77
2004 Ashley St	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,317 (+5%)	8mo	$195,000	$148	73
1809 Jay St	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,272 (+1%)	22mo	$146,500	$115	70
1905 Ashley St	0.07mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,317 (+5%)	14mo	$215,000	$163	68
1605 Wright St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,317 (+5%)	2mo	$136,000	$103	64
1309 Holly	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,206 (-4%)	5mo	$159,900	$133	48
405 Benson Dr	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,301 (+4%)	21mo	$144,000	$111	47
1607 Ashley St	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,397 (+11%)	21mo	$144,885	$104	41
1402 Magnolia Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,423 (+13%)	18mo	$165,000	$116	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $27,186
• Equity at exit: $59,514

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $80,080
• Equity at exit: $96,336

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72476

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,197 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $159	+0% $117	+5% $76	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $23	-5% $70	+0% $117	+5% $164	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $148	base $117	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 684-char remark
5. 2026-06-12
   remarks 599-char remark
6. 2026-06-12
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,149
• − Management: −$1,149
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$129
• After-tax cash flow: $1,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 0500082
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,340
• Composite: 20.15/100
• National rank: #8637
• State rank: #188 of 238 in AR

Livability — Walnut Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #21939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Ridge, AR
• Population (ZIP): 7,565

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 231.817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+106.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $119,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $144,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $144,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2000-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $25 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.