146 Duvall Rd · Hillsville, VA 24380

$155,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1968 8.61 ac lot Est $288k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the hills of Carroll County yet only 5 miles to 221 access is this residence on 8.6 acres. Great location, as it is just over the Floyd County line. 20 minutes in either direction to the Town of Floyd or the center of Hillsville. Residence is a 4 bedroom 2 bathroom home with large screened-in porch, ready for your personal touch. Roof 5 years old. Well pump 2-3 years old. 2 accessory buildings and 2-car carport provide storage or garage space. Large block workshop has electricity. 16 x 20 garage has electricity and provides storage for tools and equipment. Property also offers a spring-fed pond with reservoir that at one time was the water source for the residence. Carroll Co

Key facts

• Spring-fed pond
• Large block workshop
• 8.61 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• 2 ACCESSORY BUILDINGS
• LARGE BLOCK WORKSHOP
• SPRING-FED POND

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1968
• Exterior features: Approximately 8.61-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump electric heating; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($366/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.6% in Hillsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#339 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $155k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,573 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1095 Kanawha Ridge Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-2%)	2mo	$279,000	$203	61
952 Kanawha Ridge Rd	0.63mi	4/3.0	1,512 (+8%)	8mo	$312,000	$206	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $62,845
• Equity at exit: $114,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $180,679
• Equity at exit: $224,826

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24380

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $440/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $118	-5% $74	+0% $31	+5% $-13	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-64	-5% $-17	+0% $31	+5% $78	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $70	base $31	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    price $155,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2007-12-19
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $440 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,271 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$831/yr (+$69/mo · 188.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$440
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$565
• After-tax cash flow: $931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hillsville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #13358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,942
• Population (ZIP): 2,998

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.71%
• Current HPI: 210.4559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+126.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $170,000 MLSRV
• 2007-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $440 · +24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.