408 Meadow Ln · Ashland, MO 65010

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1959 9,729 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lots of space for the money with hard surfaces on the entire main level. Located close to schools, library, pool, and downtown. Huge family room in the basement, great for fun and entertaining, covered back porch overlooking shaded and fenced back yard.

Key facts

• Zoned r-2
• Large yard
• Basement flooring

Tags

• LARGE YARD
• BASEMENT FLOORING
• ZONED R-2

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Open paved parking (no garage)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Zoned R-2 (Two-family dwelling allowed)
• Construction: Below-grade finished area with walk-out basement (120 below-grade area)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Storm door(s); Partially wooded lot; Back yard fencing (partial chain link and wood)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher
• Flooring: Wood, Ceramic tile, Laminate, Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning; Attic fan
• Interior features: Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher; Sump pump and walk-out basement access; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#155 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southern Boone County R-I (rural): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #66 of 324 in MO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.92%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $412,560
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 Marinas Ave	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,276 (-1%)	3mo	$410,000	$180	73
202 Cottonwood Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,477 (+8%)	15mo	$399,900	$161	60
500 Appaloosa Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,963 (-14%)	4mo	$380,000	$194	60
504 Breton Way	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-13%)	0mo	$349,900	$175	58
307 Jameson Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-13%)	10mo	$365,000	$183	46
15320 Amendment Rd	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,098 (-8%)	10mo	$427,000	$204	45
200 E Liberty Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,080 (-9%)	15mo	$179,900	$86	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,946
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,281
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65010

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4680 Treaty Dr Ashland, MO	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	13d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $210,000 Active
7. 2014-07-03
   soldstatus 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lots of space for the money with hard surfaces on the entire main level. Located close to schools, library, pool, and downtown. Huge family room in the basement great for fun and entertaining, covered back porch overlooking shaded and fenced back yard.

8. 2014-07-03
   soldstatus 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lots of space for the money with hard surfaces on the entire main level. Located close to schools, library, pool, and downtown. Huge family room in the basement great for fun and entertaining, covered back porch overlooking shaded and fenced back yard.

9. 2014-04-24
   listed $119,900 253-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lots of space for the money with hard surfaces on the entire main level. Located close to schools, library, pool, and downtown. Huge family room in the basement great for fun and entertaining, covered back porch overlooking shaded and fenced back yard.

10. 2014-04-24
    listed $119,900 252-char remark

    Show marketing remark (252 chars)

    Lots of space for the money with hard surfaces on the entire main level. Located close to schools, library, pool, and downtown. Huge family room in the basement great for fun and entertaining, covered back porch overlooking shaded and fenced back yard.

11. 2013-06-27
    listed $124,900
12. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus
13. 2003-05-24
    listed $91,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,940 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$586
• After-tax cash flow: $4,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Boone County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2928560
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,240
• Composite: 39.98/100
• National rank: #3833
• State rank: #66 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #8688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, MO
• City population: 7,105
• Population (ZIP): 7,105

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.49%
• Current HPI: 227.6769
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+129.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $210,000 CBORMLS
• 2014-07-03 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2014-07-03 Sold (MLS) — JCMLS
• 2014-04-24 Listed $119,900 CBORMLS
• 2014-04-24 Listed $119,900 JCMLS
• 2013-06-27 Listed $124,900 JCMLS
• 2003-07-29 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2003-05-24 Listed $91,500 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,713 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.