6900 Pr Mossberg · Lubbock, TX 79407

$173,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 1.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6900 PR Mossberg -- a beautifully maintained home located in the highly sought-after community of Shallowater, offering the perfect blend of modern comfort and peaceful country living. Situated on well and septic, this property provides both efficiency and independence, while being serviced by the highly desirable South Plains Electric Co-Op. Step inside to a bright, open-concept living space filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere from the moment you walk in. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with stylish cabinetry, ample counter space, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas--perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The refri

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Ample counter space
• Brand new decking

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• BRAND NEW DECKING
• FENCED BACKYARD
• LARGE INSULATED SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,191 above-grade
• Exterior features: Private yard; 1.07-acre lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s); Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hockley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hockley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $166,827 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,942
• Equity at exit: $25,937

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,776
• Equity at exit: $15,040

Cash invested: $48,706 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $173,950

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $335	+0% $286	+5% $237	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $220	+0% $286	+5% $352	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $374	-0.5pp $330	base $286	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,488
• Closing costs: $5,218
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $173,950 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,950 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $173,950 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,950 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $173,950 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $173,950 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $173,950 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $173,950 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $173,950 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $173,950 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    listed $173,950 Active 1533-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,183 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,616/yr (+$218/mo · 461.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,744
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,060
• Taxable income: $575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $3,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both furniture — modern furniture enhances the home's appeal
• Both paint — fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — modern furniture enhances the home's appeal ↑
• Both paint — fresh paint can make a significant difference in curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Hockley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,295 people
• By 2030: 26,230 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 28,268 · +11.8%
• By 2050: 30,536 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 36,867 · +45.7%
• By 2100: 40,662 · +60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hockley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -52.3pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+62.4 2016: R+62.3 2012: R+57.0 2008: R+52.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $173,950 LARMLS