204 Arbor Ct · Rock Hill, SC 29732

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1974 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.88 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $994 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.4% in Rock Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#62 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities D-.
• York 03 (urban): math 36% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #32 of 80 in SC (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ebinport Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #421 of 597 statewide, top 73%, 459 students, 100% FRL); Dutchman Creek Middle (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #90 of 229 statewide, top 42%, 909 students, 49% FRL); Northwestern High (math 35% / reading 84%, grade C+, #110 of 196 statewide, top 58%, 1,774 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,550 units permitted in York County in 2024 (350 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.37%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2278 Keswick Ln	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,221 (-1%)	1mo	$360,000	$162	77
164 Fox Croft Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,261 (+0%)	2mo	$380,000	$168	73
315 Chelveston Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,163 (-4%)	1mo	$385,000	$178	72
2296 Keswick Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,299 (+2%)	6mo	$389,000	$169	68
622 Oldham Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,057 (-9%)	1mo	$365,000	$177	66
332 Chelveston Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,346 (+4%)	3mo	$365,000	$156	60
412 Osborn St	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,465 (+10%)	2mo	$385,000	$156	59
555 Stockton Way	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,067 (-8%)	7mo	$360,000	$174	59
297 Notable Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,240 (-0%)	3mo	$415,000	$185	58
257 Notable Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,369 (+5%)	3mo	$385,000	$163	55
254 Tradition Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-15%)	4mo	$351,000	$183	53
2345 Keswick Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,018 (-10%)	6mo	$440,000	$218	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $32,667
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $82,387
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29732

• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,430 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,260/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $994

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,076	-5% $1,035	+0% $994	+5% $953	+10% $912
Rent	-10% $802	-5% $898	+0% $994	+5% $1,090	+10% $1,186
Rate	-1.0pp $1,067	-0.5pp $1,031	base $994	+0.5pp $956	+1.0pp $918

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
565 Stockton Way Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	1770	$3,500	$1.98	25d	1	0.45mi
426 Osborn St Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.0	2064	$2,450	$1.19	21d	1	0.45mi
701 Hicklin Dr Rock Hill, SC	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,610	$1.26	4d	1	0.72mi
515 Harjo Dr Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,400	$1.15	6d	1	1.01mi
648 Melville Dr Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	1759	$2,250	$1.28	25d	1	1.02mi
650 Melville Dr Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	1759	$2,250	$1.28	25d	1	1.02mi
650 Melville Dr Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,400	$1.15	19d	1	1.02mi
650 Melville Dr Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.5	1759	$2,250	$1.28	6d	1	1.02mi
328 Ginsberg Rd Rock Hill, SC	4.0	3.0	2286	$2,700	$1.18	12d	1	1.07mi
1750 Ridgefield Ct Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,100	$1.25	23d	1	1.10mi
308 Voldemort St Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	16d	2	1.26mi
332 Voldemort St Rock Hill, SC	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,195	$1.22	3d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,260
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,333
• − Management: −$2,333
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $10,168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,440
• After-tax cash flow: $9,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York 03
• NCES district ID: 4503870
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,570
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4928
• State rank: #32 of 80 in SC

Livability — Rock Hill

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #7573

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 281,758 people
• City population: 115,874
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• Population (ZIP): 57,675
• Household income: $84,937
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 307,757 people
• By 2030: 335,979 · +9.2%
• By 2040: 391,378 · +27.2%
• By 2050: 443,234 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 557,102 · +81.0%
• By 2100: 625,837 · +103.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: R (+19.1) · D 39.7% · R 58.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -17.7pp · 2024: -19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.1 2020: R+16.5 2016: R+22.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.27%
• Current HPI: 239.0701
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $145,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,260 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.