609 Elmwood Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$204,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,221 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1925 3,450 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

AirBnB potential! Welcome to 609 Elmwood Avenue, a charming all-brick two-family home located in the heart of Niagara Falls. This well-maintained property offers an incredible opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants alike. The lower apartment features two spacious bedrooms, while the upper unit offers three bedrooms plus an additional half bathroom on the beautifully finished third floor—perfect for extended living space or added convenience. Both apartments showcase new flooring throughout the first and second floors, adding a modern touch to this classic home. The roof is approximately one and a half years old, offering lasting durability and peace of mind. In the full ba

Key facts

• Two hot water tanks
• Two electric panels
• New flooring

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• TWO FURNACES
• TWO HOT WATER TANKS
• TWO ELECTRIC PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1.5ba + 1×3bd/1.5ba units multifamily listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $670 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $335/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,399/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $205k implies a 772% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $192,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.01%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,492
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
609 Elmwood Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,221 (0%)	0mo	$190,800	$86	100
423 Elmwood Ave	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,232 (+0%)	3mo	$117,000	$52	93
463 Elmwood Ave	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,992 (-10%)	13mo	$73,000	$37	71
814 Willow Ave	0.35mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,072 (-7%)	2mo	$140,000	$68	66
1335 Linwood Ave	0.67mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,212 (-0%)	15mo	$90,000	$41	51
466 4th St	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,114 (-5%)	16mo	$58,000	$27	48
1023 15th St	0.64mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,304 (+4%)	5mo	$190,000	$82	47
1110 Willow Ave	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,430 (+9%)	15mo	$115,000	$47	44
1166 Haeberle Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,932 (-13%)	13mo	$110,000	$57	44
519 Tronolone Pl	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-10%)	11mo	$142,500	$71	37
445 6th St	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,016 (-9%)	22mo	$72,000	$36	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $166,857
• Equity at exit: $184,590

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $489,062
• Equity at exit: $398,076

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,399 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 67%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1.5	$1,144
1× unit	3	1.5	$1,255
Total (2 units)			$2,399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.97mi
1935 Niagara St Unit Upper Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	2685	$1,200	$0.45	14d	1	1.15mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   listed $204,900 Active
3. 2026-01-06
   historical
4. 2025-12-03
   price $209,900
5. 2025-10-17
   listed $214,900 Active
6. 2007-11-08
   soldstatus $23,500
7. 1996-03-18
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,339/yr (+$112/mo · 170.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,303
• − Management: −$2,303
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $4,934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $6,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+978.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $204,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $209,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $214,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records
• 1996-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.