409 S 4th Ave · Villisca, IA 50864

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1969 4,792 sqft lot $47/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or investment property!! Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and an attached garage. Everything you need is all one level and this home allows you to make it your own!

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1969

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($877 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#350 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Villisca Community School District (rural): math 58% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #256 of 289 in IA (top 89%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.44%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,956
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -51.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
305 S 2nd Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+8%)	6mo	$68,800	$67	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $46,242
• Equity at exit: $40,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.46×
• Total profit: $119,192
• Equity at exit: $87,425

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50864

• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $446

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $45,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $70,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-01-14
    listed $70,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property!! Offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and an attached garage. Everything you need is all one level and this home allows you to make it your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,170 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$842
• − Management: −$842
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$868
• After-tax cash flow: $3,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Villisca Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1929280
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,223
• Composite: 48.68/100
• National rank: #2102
• State rank: #256 of 289 in IA

Livability — Villisca

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #7170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Villisca, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,627

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,518 people
• By 2030: 9,116 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 8,303 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 7,595 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 6,568 · -31.0%
• By 2100: 5,800 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.1) · D 29.8% · R 68.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -39.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.1 2020: R+39.0 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 108.18%
• Current HPI: 269.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $70,000 IAR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,170 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.