3816 Roxane Blvd #158 · Kensington Park, FL 34235

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,055 sqft · Condo public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1964 $472/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Detached 2 bedroom villa in 55+ community. Large open plan, turnkey furnished, very light and bright in great condition and clean as a whistle. Active community that is well maintained. Close to downtown, shopping, airport and more. Currently the lowest 2 bedroom available in complex. Easy to show and sell.

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply; Furnished; Third party listing
• Financial info: Total monthly fees approximately $472; Total annual fees approximately $5,664
• HOA & community: Strathmore Villa Condo Association; Monthly condo fee approximately $472 (includes cable TV, pool, insurance, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, sewer, water); Association amenities include clubhouse and pool; Association approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Guest parking; Carport with 3 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; BB/HS internet available
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; North-facing; Completed condition; Accessible features with grip-accessible details
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,275 sq ft (per public records)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and rear porch; Enclosed patio; Patio; Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Irrigation equipment; Mature landscaping with trees; Cul-de-sac lot; Landscaped grounds; Paved surfaces; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Brick; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room; Laundry area outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in FL, #3,836 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gocio Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 644 students, 86% FRL); Booker High School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,309 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 42% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $170k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,229
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $61,349
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34235

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$472
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $219	+0% $171	+5% $123	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $87	+0% $171	+5% $254	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $214	base $171	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $472 · $5,664/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $174,900 Active 1869-char remark
18. 2010-08-25
    soldstatus $60,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Detached 2 bedroom villa in 55+ community. Large open plan, turnkey furnished, very light and bright in great condition and clean as a whistle. Active community that is well maintained. Close to downtown, shopping, airport and more. Currently the lowest 2 bedroom available in complex. Easy to show and sell.

19. 2010-06-04
    listed $59,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Detached 2 bedroom villa in 55+ community. Large open plan, turnkey furnished, very light and bright in great condition and clean as a whistle. Active community that is well maintained. Close to downtown, shopping, airport and more. Currently the lowest 2 bedroom available in complex. Easy to show and sell.

20. 1991-06-19
    soldstatus $60,000
21. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − HOA: −$5,664
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$108
• After-tax cash flow: $2,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kensington Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kensington Park, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,146
• Household income: $78,958
• Rent vs Own: 23.5% rent · 76.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 512.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 18% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.37%
• Current HPI: 253.3964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.68%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Listed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-25 Sold (MLS) $60,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-04 Listed $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $826 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.