1017 W 28th Pl · Panama City, FL 32405

$229,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1977 0.32 ac lot $165/sqft · 15% below area Est $270k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a home where memories are waiting to be made. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,392 square feet, a 2-car garage, and a layout that's perfect for everyday family living. Inside, you'll find a comfortable, functional floor plan with space to gather, relax, and grow. The home has great bones and is ready for a new chapter--offering the perfect opportunity for a family to come in, add their personal touches, and truly make it their own. Step outside to a spacious backyard with room for kids, pets, and weekend gatherings. Whether it's playing in the yard, working on projects in the separate workshop, or enjoying quiet evenings on the enclosed patio or open deck, this home offers th

Key facts

• Open deck
• Spacious backyard
• Separate workshop

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• SEPARATE WORKSHOP
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• OPEN DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residence; Single-family zoning
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Enclosed porch; Fenced yard; Workshop; Sprinkler system; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms including living and family areas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $230k implies a 295% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,244 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.13%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,695
• List price: $229,999
• Delta: -14.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 W 28th Pl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-1%)	15mo	$278,000	$201	85
1021 W W 28th Pl Pl	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-3%)	12mo	$255,500	$189	84
1114 Yale Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+5%)	15mo	$315,000	$215	64
2409 Nicole Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+7%)	2mo	$310,000	$208	62
934 Rosemont Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+11%)	10mo	$360,000	$233	61
2408 Stanford Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+4%)	22mo	$249,000	$171	50
1086 Blazing Star St Lot 507	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	13mo	$386,891	$249	47
2317 Rushes Ave Lot 624	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (+0%)	21mo	$419,288	$301	47
2320 Tallgrass St Lot 592	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	9mo	$395,865	$255	44
2330 Discovery Loop Lot 607 MAGNOLIA 3 PLAN	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	17mo	$406,442	$262	40
2314 Larkspur St Lot 639	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (+10%)	15mo	$443,866	$290	33
2307 Daisy Ct Lot 631	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+11%)	20mo	$413,173	$266	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,136
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-26,554
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,252/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $229,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $298	-5% $233	+0% $168	+5% $103	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $89	+0% $168	+5% $246	+10% $325
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $226	base $168	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3100 Sweetbay Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,168	$2.26	13d	26	0.35mi
1117 Blazing Star St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	21d	1	0.47mi
300 W 23rd Pl Unit 1491599P Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1313	$2,592	$1.97	21d	1	0.96mi
2870 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1230	$1,770	$1.44	21d	1	1.18mi
2950 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1199	$1,725	$1.44	21d	6	1.28mi
723 W 19th St Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,520	$1.30	21d	15	1.28mi
3625 Frankford Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,877	$1.99	13d	29	1.29mi
3502 Jenks Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1176	$1,850	$1.57	13d	24	1.31mi
901 W 19th St Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,168	$1.48	21d	5	1.31mi
1827 Balboa Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,800	$1.25	13d	1	1.31mi
2121 Harrison Ave Panama City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,550	$1.94	21d	13	1.42mi
3900 Arbor Trace Dr Lynn Haven, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1520	$1,854	$1.22	13d	34	1.42mi
1345 Capri Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,925	$1.22	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $229,999 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $229,999 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,999 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,999 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,999 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,999 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,999 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $229,999 1110-char remark
19. 2026-05-01
    listed $249,000 Active 1110-char remark
20. 1986-08-01
    soldstatus $58,249
21. 1979-07-01
    soldstatus $41,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,909 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$657/yr (+$55/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,252
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,913
• − Management: −$1,913
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$454
• After-tax cash flow: $2,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+461.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $229,999 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $249,000 CPARMLS
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,249 Public Records
• 1979-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,252 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.