312 Cherry · Lodi, CA 95240

$615,000

12 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · MultiFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Versatile triplex opportunity. Whether you're an investor looking to House Hack, live in one unit and rent the other two, or you're looking to add another property to your portfolio, this is a great choice. Units B & C are 1 bedroom 1 bath, and currently vacant and ready for an owner to move in or hand select your own tenants. Unit B had new flooring installed in the living room and bedroom. Located close to 99, this is a great location for commuters. Call today!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Great location
• Triplex opportunity

Tags

• TRIPLEX OPPORTUNITY
• NEW FLOORING
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $615k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-956 ($-11k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-319/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $477k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $417k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $417k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Lodi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#730 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,170/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 1918% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,000 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-164,296
• Equity at exit: $91,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-236,607
• Equity at exit: $53,174

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95240

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 36.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$769 /mo · $9,225/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$876
• Net cashflow: $-956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,380

Max offer price $476,690

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-531	-5% $-743	+0% $-956	+5% $-1,168	+10% $-1,381
Rent	-10% $-1,285	-5% $-1,121	+0% $-956	+5% $-791	+10% $-626
Rate	-1.0pp $-646	-0.5pp $-799	base $-956	+0.5pp $-1,115	+1.0pp $-1,277

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$4,170
Total (3 units)			$4,170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$9,225
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,003
• − Management: −$4,003
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable loss: −$22,607
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,426
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #730
• US rank: #21523

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lodi, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 78,944
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,517
• Household income: $82,137
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1918.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 35% Two or more races 26% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.68%
• Current HPI: 320.685
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B