Pima Plan · Providence Village, TX 76227

$222,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 657 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Large homesites
• Garage
• Listed 656 days

Tags

• LARGE HOMESITES
• PRIVATE ONSITE AMENITIES

🏗️ New construction. The $222,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,293.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#567 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Aubrey ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #119 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James A Monaco (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 537 students, 36% FRL); Aubrey Middle (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 814 students, 34% FRL); Aubrey H S (math 45% / reading 57%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 923 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 2658 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 96d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 85% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 657 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $196,239 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 657 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.71%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,293
• List price: $222,999
• Delta: -24.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11000 Losino Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	0mo	$269,999	$193	74
1916 Ventasso Blvd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-7%)	0mo	$248,999	$196	65
1936 Ventasso Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	0mo	$266,999	$180	63
3164 Campeiro Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+3%)	1mo	$245,999	$175	57
3156 Campeiro Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+4%)	1mo	$250,999	$178	57
1848 Ventasso Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	1mo	$266,999	$180	56
1840 Ventasso Blvd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	1mo	$269,000	$181	55
4225 Jutland Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-7%)	0mo	$265,999	$210	55
1812 Ventasso Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	1mo	$262,359	$177	54
4216 Jutland Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-7%)	1mo	$249,999	$197	54
3125 Campeiro Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-7%)	1mo	$241,359	$191	53
11205 Dales Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+9%)	1mo	$271,999	$183	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-83,388
• Equity at exit: $44,178

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-133,223
• Equity at exit: $25,618

Cash invested: $82,962 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 72 active · 54 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.9 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,000 ($191/sqft)
• Median days on market: 75 d
• This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76227

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 2658
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,554
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,444/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,592

Max offer price $229,202

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-259	-5% $-361	+0% $-464	+5% $-566	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-622	-5% $-543	+0% $-464	+5% $-384	+10% $-305
Rate	-1.0pp $-314	-0.5pp $-388	base $-464	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,073
• Closing costs: $8,889
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9901 Concord Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$2,000	$1.25	47d	1	0.20mi
1900 Monchino Pl Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,345	$1.30	115d	1	0.28mi
1821 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,825	$1.23	121d	1	0.29mi
1808 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1678	$1,899	$1.13	115d	1	0.32mi
1805 Pentro Pkwy Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,000	$1.11	32d	1	0.33mi
1948 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,200	$1.31	21d	1	0.37mi
1932 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	33d	1	0.41mi
1932 Ventasso Blvd Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	25d	1	0.41mi
5953 Revere Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,399	$1.31	141d	1	0.46mi
9185 Blackstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1808	$1,925	$1.06	95d	1	0.49mi
9185 Blackstone Dr Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1854	$1,925	$1.04	91d	1	0.49mi
11025 Triple Crown Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,195	$1.22	36d	1	0.50mi
11033 Triple Crown Ct Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	9d	1	0.51mi
1817 Ventasso Blvd Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$2,395	$1.40	82d	1	0.55mi
3009 Tokara St Krugerville, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,900	$1.35	140d	1	0.59mi
9136 Benevolent Ct Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1649	$2,100	$1.27	95d	1	0.61mi
3112 Tokara St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,045	$1.45	140d	1	0.62mi
3009 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,155	$1.35	140d	1	0.64mi
3041 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	140d	1	0.64mi
3141 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1402	$1,945	$1.39	65d	1	0.65mi
3168 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	140d	1	0.67mi
3120 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,400	$1.45	58d	1	0.67mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	95d	1	0.68mi
3132 Burmese St Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,775	$1.27	104d	1	0.68mi
3160 Burmese St Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,795	$1.27	65d	1	0.68mi
3185 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	20d	1	0.69mi
3105 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	121d	1	0.69mi
3117 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,895	$1.35	104d	1	0.69mi
3181 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	58d	1	0.69mi
3125 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,899	$1.50	29d	1	0.69mi
3121 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,925	$1.17	140d	1	0.70mi
3133 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,850	$1.32	121d	1	0.70mi
3141 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	12d	1	0.70mi
3145 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	0.70mi
3161 Campeiro Ave Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	44d	1	0.70mi
9824 Birch Dr Providence Village, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,820	$1.46	140d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	119d	1	0.71mi
9109 Nathaniel Dr Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	121d	1	0.71mi
3040 Campeiro Ave Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	115d	1	0.72mi
1723 Kenmore Rd Aubrey, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,850	$1.27	55d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-25
   days on market $222,999 Active 657 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $222,999 Active 656 DOM
3. 2026-09-23
   days on market $222,999 Active 655 DOM
4. 2026-09-22
   days on market $222,999 Active 654 DOM
5. 2026-09-21
   days on market $222,999 Active 653 DOM
6. 2026-09-20
   days on market $222,999 Active 652 DOM
7. 2026-09-19
   days on market $222,999 Active 651 DOM
8. 2026-09-18
   days on market $222,999 Active 650 DOM
9. 2026-09-17
   days on market $222,999 Active 649 DOM
10. 2026-09-16
    days on market $222,999 Active 648 DOM
11. 2026-09-15
    days on market $222,999 Active 647 DOM
12. 2026-09-14
    days on market $222,999 Active 646 DOM
13. 2026-09-13
    days on market $222,999 Active 645 DOM
14. 2026-09-12
    days on market $222,999 Active 644 DOM
15. 2026-09-11
    days on market $222,999 Active 643 DOM
16. 2026-09-06
    price $222,999 Active 637 DOM
17. 2026-09-05
    days on market $237,999 Active 637 DOM
18. 2026-09-04
    days on market $237,999 Active 636 DOM
19. 2026-09-02
    days on market $237,999 Active 634 DOM
20. 2026-08-31
    days on market $237,999 Active 632 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,999 Active 630 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $237,999 Active 629 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $237,999 Active 628 DOM
24. 2026-08-26
    days on market $237,999 Active 627 DOM
25. 2026-08-25
    days on market $237,999 Active 626 DOM
26. 2026-08-24
    days on market $237,999 Active 625 DOM
27. 2026-08-23
    days on market $237,999 Active 624 DOM
28. 2026-08-22
    days on market $237,999 Active 623 DOM
29. 2026-08-21
    days on market $237,999 Active 622 DOM
30. 2026-08-20
    days on market $237,999 Active 621 DOM
31. 2026-08-19
    days on market $237,999 Active 620 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $237,999 Active 619 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $237,999 Active 618 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $237,999 Active 617 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,999 Active 616 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $237,999 Active 615 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $237,999 Active 614 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $237,999 Active 613 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $237,999 Active 612 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $237,999 Active 611 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $237,999 Active 610 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $237,999 Active 609 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $237,999 Active 607 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $237,999 Active 606 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $237,999 Active 605 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $237,999 Active 604 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $237,999 Active 601 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $237,999 Active 600 DOM
49. 2026-07-30
    days on market $237,999 Active 599 DOM
50. 2026-07-28
    days on market $237,999 Active 598 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,597
• − Property taxes: −$4,444
• − Insurance: −$1,481
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,925
• − Management: −$1,925
• − Depreciation: −$8,619
• Taxable loss: −$10,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,624
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James A Monaco C+ TX #574/4,322 Nat'l #9,382/41,679 Middle Aubrey Middle D+ TX #424/1,662 Nat'l #4,159/14,009 High Aubrey H S D+ TX #482/1,632 Nat'l #5,320/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aubrey ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808910
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,154
• Composite: 46.21/100
• National rank: #2492
• State rank: #119 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Providence Village

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #567
• US rank: #10856

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence Village, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,127
• Household income: $111,402
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.76%
• Current HPI: 254.2895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.88%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $237,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $244,999 Zillow
• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-22 Price Changed $242,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-14 Price Changed $239,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $234,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2024-12-06 Listed $235,999 Zillow