32323 Modoc Point Rd · Oregon Shores, OR 97624

$58,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 1993 ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Large tiny house, built by well known developer in Tennessee in 2017. 10.5 x 32 ft trailer with slide/out. The house is approx. 650 sq ft of living space which includes: 2 lofts (10x10); office or bedroom downstairs; full bathroom (bath & amp; shower); Full kitchen, living room; front deck, green house & amp; SheShed for extra storage. Currently in RV Park.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Front deck
• Green house

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• FRONT DECK
• GREEN HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 2.1% in Oregon Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Klamath County SD (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 58 in OR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Klamath County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($404 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Klamath County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,745 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.33%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $68,677
• Equity at exit: $52,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.58×
• Total profit: $173,343
• Equity at exit: $113,653

Cash invested: $16,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97624

• Home prices YoY: 21.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$307
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $512

Max offer price $58,500

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $598	+0% $578	+5% $558	+10% $537
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $529	+0% $578	+5% $627	+10% $676
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $593	base $578	+0.5pp $563	+1.0pp $547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,625
• Closing costs: $1,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,500 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,500 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,500 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,500 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,500 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,500 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $58,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,500 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,500 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,500 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $58,500 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,500 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,500 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,500 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,500 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $58,500 Active
17. 2021-12-17
    soldstatus $900,000
18. 2020-04-25
    historical
19. 2018-01-09
    listed $550,000
20. 2004-11-30
    soldstatus $425,000
21. 1999-11-12
    soldstatus $83,236

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥91°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,917
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,277
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$1,702
• Taxable income: $6,382
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $5,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klamath County SD
• NCES district ID: 4107020
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,906
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7593
• State rank: #46 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon Shores

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,756

Population outlook (Klamath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,870 people
• By 2030: 62,279 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 58,891 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 56,207 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 51,239 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 46,526 · -27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Native American 16% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Klamath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.9) · D 27.9% · R 69.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -41.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.9 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+38.2 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.46%
• Current HPI: 483.6619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-29.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $58,500 FSBO.com
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $900,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2018-01-09 Listed $550,000 MLSCO
• 2004-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $83,236 Public Records

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,223 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.