1521 W Juliet Ave · Tulare, CA 93274

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 7,481 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special. Home needs TLC and new HVAC unit. Three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Needs new roof and complete rehab.

Key facts

• 7,481 sq ft lot
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.3% in Tulare — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#701 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Tulare Joint Union High (suburban): math 18% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #280 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.02%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $284,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1521 W Juliet Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,032 (0%)	1mo	$157,500	$153	99
1502 W Maple Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+2%)	13mo	$330,000	$314	82
1800 W Merritt Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+1%)	7mo	$285,000	$274	74
501 N California Ct	0.50mi	3/1.8	1,032 (0%)	8mo	$300,000	$291	69
892 W Madalyn Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-2%)	7mo	$320,000	$317	62
1025 Belmont St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,085 (+5%)	11mo	$275,000	$253	57
1188 Palo Alto St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,016 (-2%)	14mo	$280,000	$276	56
1991 Country View Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+13%)	10mo	$318,000	$273	51
2157 Dandelion Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+14%)	10mo	$340,000	$289	45
2158 Country View Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,166 (+13%)	14mo	$349,900	$300	44
1140 W King	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-8%)	6mo	$235,000	$246	42
800 N D St	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,173 (+14%)	8mo	$300,000	$256	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $41,641
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $109,900
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93274

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $767/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $833

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $991	-5% $961	+0% $932	+5% $902	+10% $872
Rent	-10% $773	-5% $852	+0% $932	+5% $1,011	+10% $1,091
Rate	-1.0pp $984	-0.5pp $958	base $932	+0.5pp $904	+1.0pp $877

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1136 W Damron Ave Tulare, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.30mi
1516 Calaveras Ct Tulare, CA	4.0	2.0	1274	$2,000	$1.57	15d	1	1.01mi
1255 N H St Tulare, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-16
   listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $767 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $798 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 4.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$767
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,414
• After-tax cash flow: $8,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tulare Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0639930
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,858
• Composite: 29.91/100
• National rank: #6384
• State rank: #280 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tulare

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #21185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tulare, CA
• County: Tulare County · 323,826 people
• City population: 80,026
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,026
• Household income: $72,650
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2393.0

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% White 29% Two or more races 24% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -402.03%
• Current HPI: 316.0806
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Metro: Visalia, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-16 Pending — TCMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $105,000 TCMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $767 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.