809 Vermont Route 102 · Colebrook, NH 05903

$159,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1953 0.70 ac lot $88/sqft · 32% below area Est $253k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This farm-style home offers a comfortable, lived-in feel and is ready for its next owner. The layout includes 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The roof was replaced about 4 years ago, offering added peace of mind. Outside, the property features a detached one-car garage with power, making it useful for parking, storage, or small projects. Conveniently located just a short drive to town, the home provides easy access to everyday essentials while maintaining a more rural setting. The sale of this property being listed is contingent upon the proposed Seller (or Owner) completing his/her/its purchase of this property. Seller currently has this property under contract for purchase.

Key facts

• Short drive to town
• Rural setting
• 0.7 acre lot

Tags

• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• SHORT DRIVE TO TOWN
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-288/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Colebrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#43 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 11 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $160k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,680 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,166
• List price: $159,995
• Delta: -36.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $71,367
• Equity at exit: $129,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.66×
• Total profit: $208,752
• Equity at exit: $263,516

Cash invested: $44,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05903

• Home prices YoY: 5.5%
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $155,758

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $21	+0% $-24	+5% $-69	+10% $-115
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-75	+0% $-24	+5% $27	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $57	-0.5pp $17	base $-24	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,999
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,995 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,995 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,995 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,995 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,995 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,995 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,995 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,995 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,995 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,995 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,995 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,995 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,995 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,995 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    price $159,995 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,995 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,995 Active 25 DOM
18. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    This farm-style home offers a comfortable, lived-in feel and is ready for its next owner. The layout includes 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The roof was replaced about 4 years ago, offering added peace of mind. Outside, the property features a detached one-car garage with power, making it useful for parking, storage, or small projects. Conveniently located just a short drive to town, the home provides easy access to everyday essentials while maintaining a more rural setting. The sale of this property being listed is contingent upon the proposed Seller (or Owner) completing his/her/its purchase of this property. Seller currently has this property under contract for purchase.

19. 2026-04-21
    listed $169,995 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    This farm-style home offers a comfortable, lived-in feel and is ready for its next owner. The layout includes 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The roof was replaced about 4 years ago, offering added peace of mind. Outside, the property features a detached one-car garage with power, making it useful for parking, storage, or small projects. Conveniently located just a short drive to town, the home provides easy access to everyday essentials while maintaining a more rural setting. The sale of this property being listed is contingent upon the proposed Seller (or Owner) completing his/her/its purchase of this property. Seller currently has this property under contract for purchase.

20. 2018-01-05
    soldstatus $80,100
21. 2018-01-02
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Northeast Kingdom charm at its finest! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has played host to the same family since 1951. Large eat-in-kitchen with pellet stove in the fireplace, beautiful wood floors in the dining room and living room, gas fireplace insert in the living room, 2 bedrooms split level off the first floor multi purpose room. Upstairs is a large bedroom, family room, walk-in closet and its own bathroom. This space would be perfect for your new private master suite. Outside there is a nice patio on the back of the home, your very own 1 car garage, lots and lots of beautiful flowers, a garden plot that has produced a wonderful bounty for many many years, Monadnock Mountain towers over the farmland behind the home, and the view across the street is of pastures, the Connecticut River Valley, and the Mountains of New Hampshire.

22. 2017-11-08
    listed Active with Contract 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Northeast Kingdom charm at its finest! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has played host to the same family since 1951. Large eat-in-kitchen with pellet stove in the fireplace, beautiful wood floors in the dining room and living room, gas fireplace insert in the living room, 2 bedrooms split level off the first floor multi purpose room. Upstairs is a large bedroom, family room, walk-in closet and its own bathroom. This space would be perfect for your new private master suite. Outside there is a nice patio on the back of the home, your very own 1 car garage, lots and lots of beautiful flowers, a garden plot that has produced a wonderful bounty for many many years, Monadnock Mountain towers over the farmland behind the home, and the view across the street is of pastures, the Connecticut River Valley, and the Mountains of New Hampshire.

23. 2017-11-08
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Northeast Kingdom charm at its finest! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has played host to the same family since 1951. Large eat-in-kitchen with pellet stove in the fireplace, beautiful wood floors in the dining room and living room, gas fireplace insert in the living room, 2 bedrooms split level off the first floor multi purpose room. Upstairs is a large bedroom, family room, walk-in closet and its own bathroom. This space would be perfect for your new private master suite. Outside there is a nice patio on the back of the home, your very own 1 car garage, lots and lots of beautiful flowers, a garden plot that has produced a wonderful bounty for many many years, Monadnock Mountain towers over the farmland behind the home, and the view across the street is of pastures, the Connecticut River Valley, and the Mountains of New Hampshire.

24. 2017-07-24
    historical Active with Contract 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Northeast Kingdom charm at its finest! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has played host to the same family since 1951. Large eat-in-kitchen with pellet stove in the fireplace, beautiful wood floors in the dining room and living room, gas fireplace insert in the living room, 2 bedrooms split level off the first floor multi purpose room. Upstairs is a large bedroom, family room, walk-in closet and its own bathroom. This space would be perfect for your new private master suite. Outside there is a nice patio on the back of the home, your very own 1 car garage, lots and lots of beautiful flowers, a garden plot that has produced a wonderful bounty for many many years, Monadnock Mountain towers over the farmland behind the home, and the view across the street is of pastures, the Connecticut River Valley, and the Mountains of New Hampshire.

25. 2017-06-08
    listed $90,000 Active 838-char remark

    Show marketing remark (838 chars)

    Northeast Kingdom charm at its finest! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home has played host to the same family since 1951. Large eat-in-kitchen with pellet stove in the fireplace, beautiful wood floors in the dining room and living room, gas fireplace insert in the living room, 2 bedrooms split level off the first floor multi purpose room. Upstairs is a large bedroom, family room, walk-in closet and its own bathroom. This space would be perfect for your new private master suite. Outside there is a nice patio on the back of the home, your very own 1 car garage, lots and lots of beautiful flowers, a garden plot that has produced a wonderful bounty for many many years, Monadnock Mountain towers over the farmland behind the home, and the view across the street is of pastures, the Connecticut River Valley, and the Mountains of New Hampshire.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,601 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable loss: −$3,058
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$734
• After-tax cash flow: $446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Colebrook

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #6943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 714

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,715 people
• By 2030: 5,396 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 4,680 · -18.1%
• By 2050: 4,025 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 3,104 · -45.7%
• By 2100: 2,590 · -54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 5% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: R (+16.0) · D 39.4% · R 55.4% · Other 5.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: -16.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+18.0 2012: D+13.4 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.68%
• Current HPI: 166.8585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+88.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $169,995 PrimeMLS
• 2018-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $80,100 Public Records
• 2018-01-02 Sold (MLS) $80,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-11-08 Listed — PrimeMLS
• 2017-11-08 Sold (MLS) $80,000 PrimeMLS
• 2017-07-24 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2017-06-08 Listed $90,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,713 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.