6953 State Route 219 Lot 4 · Montezuma, OH 45822

$45,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 398 Days on market

Built 2006 $64/sqft · 50% below area Est $51k · 10% under $395/mo HOA · 28% of rent ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

Key facts

• Park your boat
• Community pool
• Built 2006

Tags

• QUICK ACCESS TO GRAND LAKE
• PRIVATE SWIMMING POOL
• SAND VOLLEYBALL COURT
• PARK YOUR BOAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#785 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $317 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 398 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $40,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 398 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.93%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,893
• List price: $45,900
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6953 Ohio 219 #2	0.01mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (-7%)	3mo	$58,400	$87	80
5359 Karafit Rd #24	0.35mi	2/1.0 (+1)	784 (+9%)	13mo	$43,000	$55	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $18,696
• Equity at exit: $6,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $50,665
• Equity at exit: $3,969

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45822

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashsnow removalpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 398 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 397 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 396 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 395 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,900 Active 393 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,900 Active 392 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,900 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,900 Active 383 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,900 Active 382 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,900 Active 381 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,900 Active 380 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    status Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

16. 2026-04-24
    status Pending 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

17. 2025-10-24
    price $45,900 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

18. 2025-08-05
    price $49,900 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

19. 2025-05-20
    price $59,900 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

20. 2025-04-27
    listed $74,900 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to Grand Lake Estates, Lot 4! This lot could not be in a more perfect location on the channel with quick access to Grand Lake. Year- round living or a weekend home, this Park Model is perfect for all of your needs! All appliances come with the home - microwave, stove, and refrigerator. You can park your boat right in the channel, steps from your front yard. Grand Lake Estates also has a private swimming pool, shelter house and sand volleyball court. All buyers will need approval of the park owners. This is a 55 plus community and monthly rent is $395 (water/sewer, trash removal, snow removal on roads, community pool, horseshoes, shelter house) *They will be adding an awning*

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $4,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,129
• After-tax cash flow: $3,745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina City
• NCES district ID: 3910030
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,168
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1864
• State rank: #299 of 656 in OH

Livability — Montezuma

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #14269

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mercer · 42,068 people
• City population: 100
• Population (ZIP): 20,170
• Household income: $72,106
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 15.9

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,163 people
• By 2030: 39,367 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 37,406 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 34,917 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 28,969 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 21,338 · -46.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.3% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.25%
• Current HPI: 204.0486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-38.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — WRIST
• 2026-04-24 Pending — WRIST
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $45,900 WRIST
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $49,900 WRIST
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $59,900 WRIST
• 2025-04-27 Listed $74,900 WRIST

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $47 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.