5050 Potomac St · St. Louis, MO 63139

$450,000

16 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,342 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1941 5,736 sqft lot Est $378k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Entered for comp purposes only. Beautiful Brick Art Deco style 4-family with larger +/- 856 sq ft, flats in North Hampton! Each unit has separate "townhouse" front entrances, private bedrooms, central heat and A/C, and bonus sunroom additions on the rear. This rare-find property also features a matching, full brick, oversized 4 car garage with remote openers! Updates already done to the building include; Architectural shingled roofs, circuit breaker panels and outside electric service, thermal windows, Central A/C, 2 newer HVAC systems, PVC waste stacks, updated water lines, newer garage door openers and more! Desirable units feature original entry doors w stained glass, arched wa

Key facts

• 5,736 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 4-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive. Per door: $721/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $450k).
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Buder Elem. (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #967 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 403 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,276/mo this rent would consume 115% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 653% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $450,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.46%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $377,646
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5018 Pernod	0.19mi	16/16.0	3,500 (+5%)	8mo	$395,000	$113	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $128,572
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $425,429
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63139

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,813/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,528
• Net cashflow: $2,883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,138	-5% $3,010	+0% $2,883	+5% $2,756	+10% $2,628
Rent	-10% $2,308	-5% $2,596	+0% $2,883	+5% $3,170	+10% $3,458
Rate	-1.0pp $3,110	-0.5pp $2,997	base $2,883	+0.5pp $2,766	+1.0pp $2,648

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	4	4	$7,276
Total (4 units)			$7,276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-07-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-10
   listed $450,000 Active
3. 2025-03-11
   listed $450,000 Active
4. 2025-03-03
   historical
5. 2024-11-12
   soldstatus $315,000
6. 2024-11-12
   soldstatus $324,900
7. 2002-09-19
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,813 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,365 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $87,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$3,813
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,985
• − Management: −$6,985
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $28,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,956
• After-tax cash flow: $27,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $75,757
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 653.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.54%
• Current HPI: 256.7513
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.39%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Listed $450,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Listed $450,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-03 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $324,900 Public Records
• 2024-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,813 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.