407 N Powell St · Pampa, TX 79065

$96,750

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1955 7,841 sqft lot $78/sqft · at area comps Est $99k · at est. ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with great curb appeal! This spacious home offers tons of natural light, original hardwood floors, and a nicely updated tiled bathroom. Enjoy central heating and air, low-maintenance vinyl siding, and a large 2-car detached carport with extra storage behind. The spacious backyard provides plenty of room to relax or entertain!

Key facts

• Natural light
• Tiled bathroom
• Curb appeal

Tags

• CURB APPEAL
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TILED BATHROOM
• CENTRAL HEATING AND AIR
• LOW-MAINTENANCE VINYL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $668 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,945 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,000
• List price: $96,750
• Delta: -2.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-4,967
• Equity at exit: $14,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $9,611
• Equity at exit: $8,365

Cash invested: $27,090 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79065

• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$507
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $96,750

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,188
• Closing costs: $2,902
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,750 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,750 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,750 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,750 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,750 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,750 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $96,750 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $96,750 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $96,750 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $96,750 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $96,750 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,750 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,750 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,750 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $96,750 Active 379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (379 chars)

    Don't miss this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with great curb appeal! This spacious home offers tons of natural light, original hardwood floors, and a nicely updated tiled bathroom. Enjoy central heating and air, low-maintenance vinyl siding, and a large 2-car detached carport with extra storage behind. The spacious backyard provides plenty of room to relax or entertain!

16. 2026-03-24
    listed $96,750 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Don't miss this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home with great curb appeal! This spacious home offers tons of natural light, original hardwood floors, and a nicely tiled bathroom. Enjoy central heating and air, low-maintenance vinyl siding, and a large 2-car detached carport with extra storage behind. The spacious backyard provides plenty of room to relax or entertain!

17. 2025-10-31
    price $94,900
18. 2025-03-24
    listed $101,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,420
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,085
• − Management: −$1,085
• − Depreciation: −$2,815
• Taxable income: $541
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$130
• After-tax cash flow: $1,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pampa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834170
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,741
• Composite: 31.43/100
• National rank: #5986
• State rank: #482 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pampa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #3885

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pampa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,569

Population outlook (Gray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,965 people
• By 2030: 26,105 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 28,752 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 31,859 · +27.6%
• By 2075: 39,812 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 43,284 · +73.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Gray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.1) · D 11.2% · R 88.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -71.0pp · 2024: -77.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.1 2020: R+77.2 2016: R+78.8 2012: R+75.2 2008: R+71.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.67%
• Current HPI: 128.8525
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $96,750 PBOR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $96,750 AARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $94,900 PBOR
• 2025-03-24 Listed $101,900 PBOR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,133 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.