Morrow Plan · Wylie, TX 75407

$252,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• VERSATILE LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $252,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,300.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-358 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,286 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,300
• List price: $252,999
• Delta: -10.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10908 County Road 442	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-2%)	11mo	$499,000	$272	69
5528 Timber Point Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,675 (-10%)	14mo	$289,000	$173	45
412 Crossvine Way	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,994 (+7%)	18mo	$335,000	$168	41
5405 Lavender Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,675 (-10%)	8mo	$268,000	$160	40
319 Moray Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,675 (-10%)	22mo	$312,000	$186	34
5125 Greywing Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	4mo	$320,000	$200	34
106 Autumn Sage Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-14%)	23mo	$309,000	$194	34
302 Mahogany Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,674 (-10%)	23mo	$284,499	$170	30
5808 Crystal Water Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,674 (-10%)	23mo	$289,999	$173	27
132 Ardsley Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-14%)	23mo	$335,999	$210	23
5200 Idlewood Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,596 (-14%)	18mo	$315,000	$197	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,974
• Equity at exit: $44,925

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-121,827
• Equity at exit: $26,051

Cash invested: $84,364 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,580
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,520/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,636

Max offer price $249,532

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-254	+0% $-358	+5% $-462	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-530	-5% $-444	+0% $-358	+5% $-272	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-206	-0.5pp $-281	base $-358	+0.5pp $-436	+1.0pp $-515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,325
• Closing costs: $9,039
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,700	$1.04	8d	1	0.29mi
5217 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,186	$1.34	23d	1	0.29mi
122 Lemongrass Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,955	$1.17	6d	1	0.33mi
108 Wyndemere Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,100	$1.46	45d	1	0.34mi
126 Autumn Sage Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,110	$1.00	8d	1	0.37mi
126 Autumn Sage Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,336	$1.10	23d	1	0.37mi
128 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$2,200	$1.31	20d	1	0.37mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	6d	1	0.38mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,700	$1.34	45d	1	0.39mi
5135 Bancroft Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,400	$1.01	45d	1	0.43mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	45d	1	0.44mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,800	$1.43	45d	1	0.47mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,925	$1.34	45d	1	0.50mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,720	$1.36	45d	1	0.52mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	6d	1	0.52mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,050	$1.62	25d	1	0.53mi
147 Starfall Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,495	$1.05	4d	1	0.53mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,624	$1.15	22d	1	0.55mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,780	$1.24	45d	1	0.56mi
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	20d	1	0.63mi
5119 Winterberry Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,135	$1.16	45d	1	0.64mi
412 Crossvine Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,795	$1.40	45d	1	0.66mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	14d	1	0.67mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,695	$1.14	0d	1	0.67mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	0.67mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	18d	1	0.68mi
252 Ardsley Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	4d	1	0.68mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,699	$1.15	0d	1	0.69mi
5105 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	19d	1	0.70mi
404 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,850	$1.11	45d	1	0.71mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	0.72mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,749	$1.18	6d	1	0.72mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	0.72mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	25d	1	0.73mi
5405 Lavender Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,900	$1.13	45d	1	0.73mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	45d	1	0.73mi
5001 Greywing Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	0.74mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	5d	1	0.76mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	6d	1	0.77mi
510 Olmstead Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,395	$1.90	6d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $252,999 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,999 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,999 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,999 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,999 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,999 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,999 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $269,999 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a spacious and modern design. On the first floor, a flexible open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. On the second floor, three secondary bedrooms surround a versatile loft for convenient shared living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,877
• − Property taxes: −$4,520
• − Insurance: −$1,507
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$8,765
• Taxable loss: −$9,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious and modern design, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase appeal and justify higher prices
• Both Install smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase appeal and justify higher prices ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $269,999 Zillow