15214 Tolmino St · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$729,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2022 Excellent condition $457/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is the most upgraded Ceretti twin-villa you will find in Esplanade by the Islands — and it isn't close. Nearly every surface, system, and space in this 3-bedroom-plus-den, 1,905 SF home has been thoughtfully enhanced well beyond builder standard. The showpiece is a dramatically expanded lanai enclosed by a panoramic pool cage, creating one of the most impressive outdoor living spaces in the community, complete with a full granite outdoor kitchen, matching granite dining table, and a professionally installed exterior bug misting system — a perimeter-mounted pipe system that sprays a fine mist to keep the outdoor space pest-free at the push of a button. Inside, the owner's su

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Expanded lanai
• Home office

Tags

• EXPANDED LANAI
• GRANITE OUTDOOR KITCHEN
• FLOOR TO CEILING TILE SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY
• CUSTOM MILLWORK ACCENT WALL
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of an 80-unit community; building contains 2 units
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with professional management; Quarterly master HOA fee; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, lawn/land maintenance, and exterior pest control; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, fitness center (attended), full service spa, restaurant, beauty salon, bike and jog path, bocce court, pickleball, and community room; Total annual recurring HOA fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Attached villa (duplex); Single-story; Rear exposure to the west; Located in the Esplanade by the Islands community
• Construction: Built in 2022; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact-resistant windows and doors
• Exterior features: Patio; Landscaped view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer; Central vacuum (kitchen hookup included)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den (den/study included)
• Flooring: Laminate floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Closet cabinets; High-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Great room floor plan; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Central vacuum system

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $729k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-642 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $616k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $628k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $616k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 51%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 584 students, 73% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 904 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,285/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $615,536 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-109,698
• Equity at exit: $159,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-97,336
• Equity at exit: $153,447

Cash invested: $204,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 904
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,285 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax from tax record: −$597 /mo · $7,164/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$457
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,320
• Net cashflow: $-642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,098

Max offer price $615,536

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-230	-5% $-436	+0% $-642	+5% $-849	+10% $-1,055
Rent	-10% $-1,139	-5% $-891	+0% $-642	+5% $-394	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-275	-0.5pp $-457	base $-642	+0.5pp $-831	+1.0pp $-1,023

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,250
• Closing costs: $21,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15191 Tolmino St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1950	$9,000	$4.62	25d	1	0.04mi
15197 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,300	$3.83	25d	1	0.04mi
15189 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,500	$3.94	25d	1	0.05mi
15158 Tolmino St Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1676	$3,000	$1.79	15d	1	0.08mi
15210 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,500	$3.94	15d	1	0.09mi
15155 Tolmino St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1930	$9,000	$4.66	25d	1	0.11mi
15257 Zeno Way #204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2183	$3,400	$1.56	15d	1	0.12mi
15137 Sacile St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$3,750	$1.97	25d	1	0.12mi
15244 Zeno Way Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2343	$3,600	$1.54	25d	1	0.15mi
15312 Motta Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2232	$4,250	$1.90	25d	1	0.15mi
15318 Aprile St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2500	$5,020	$2.01	25d	1	0.17mi
15323 Lucerna St #204 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2393	$4,500	$1.88	15d	1	0.21mi
15335 Lucerna St #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1956	$6,500	$3.32	25d	1	0.21mi
15320 Lucerna St #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1717	$2,995	$1.74	15d	1	0.22mi
15336 Lucerna St #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1956	$3,500	$1.79	25d	1	0.22mi
15111 Pescara St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2413	$15,000	$6.22	23d	1	0.23mi
15495 Rio Ponace Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2465	$17,000	$6.90	25d	1	0.34mi
15561 Vittorio St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,500	$3.94	25d	1	0.40mi
15641 Gavello St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$10,000	$5.26	25d	1	0.49mi
15657 Gavello St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1905	$7,500	$3.94	25d	1	0.51mi
2717 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$8,500	$3.40	25d	1	0.59mi
2710 Callista Ct #104 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$9,000	$3.60	25d	1	0.65mi
2713 Callista Ct #103 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2237	$6,999	$3.13	25d	1	0.65mi
3290 Dorado Ln Unit 1-102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$10,000	$3.85	25d	1	0.70mi
3290 Dorado Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2600	$5,530	$2.13	15d	1	0.70mi
15804 Derna St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2337	$15,000	$6.42	25d	1	0.70mi
2850 Aviamar Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2246	$12,000	$5.34	25d	1	0.74mi
3031 Marengo Ct Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2200	$3,500	$1.59	15d	1	1.09mi
3149 Aviamar Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1890	$7,500	$3.97	15d	1	1.11mi
9104 Cherry Oaks Trl Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1876	$5,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.20mi
130 Grassy Key Ln Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,850	$1.48	15d	1	1.21mi
130 Grassy Key Ln #37 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,795	$1.44	15d	1	1.21mi
9142 Cherry Oaks Ln #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$3,000	$1.25	15d	1	1.34mi
14796 Canton Ct Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$7,000	$4.17	25d	1	1.38mi
9630 Campanile Cir Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2283	$15,000	$6.57	25d	1	1.44mi
9209 Museo Cir Unit 102 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2502	$7,200	$2.88	15d	1	1.47mi
9006 Cascada Way #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2408	$7,950	$3.30	25d	1	1.47mi
14678 Fern Lake Ct Unit 1049694P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2142	$6,065	$2.83	15d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $457 · $5,484/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $729,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,164 · $597/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,164 · $597/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $75,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,835
• − Property taxes: −$7,164
• − Insurance: −$8,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,033
• − Management: −$6,033
• − HOA: −$5,484
• − Depreciation: −$21,207
• Taxable loss: −$20,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautifully upgraded Ceretti twin-villa in Esplanade by the Islands is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed and a high condition score.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $729,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+82.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,164 · +23.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.