119 Monticello St · Trinity, TX 75862

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1981 10,402 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

10,400 sq ft lot located in Trinity, Texas. Great opportunity for a homesite, investment property, or weekend retreat. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities and outdoor recreation. The house next door is also available for purchase if additional property is desired. Block 09, Lot 19.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Large storage shed
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Located in the Trinity Plantation association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Septic sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Single-story (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Two additional first-floor bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cleared lot (yard area is cleared)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 50% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $209 of equity ($829 loan paydown + $-620 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 1162% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,303 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.29%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,802
• Equity at exit: $31,748

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $31,080
• Equity at exit: $35,794

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $210	+0% $176	+5% $142	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $129	+0% $176	+5% $223	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $207	base $176	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $9,500 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    10,400 sq ft lot located in Trinity, Texas. Great opportunity for a homesite, investment property, or weekend retreat. Conveniently located with access to nearby amenities and outdoor recreation. The house next door is also available for purchase if additional property is desired. Block 09, Lot 19.

18. 2026-05-18
    listed $119,900 Active
19. 2026-04-20
    soldstatus Closed 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! Don't miss this home featuring a spacious covered deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—as well as a large storage shed for all your tools and toys. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space for pets or gardening. Situated on TWO LOTS, this property provides extra room and flexibility. Located in a desirable subdivision with great community perks including a 9-hole golf course just minutes away. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, this home offers comfort, convenience, and recreation all in one!

20. 2026-03-16
    status Pending 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! Don't miss this home featuring a spacious covered deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—as well as a large storage shed for all your tools and toys. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space for pets or gardening. Situated on TWO LOTS, this property provides extra room and flexibility. Located in a desirable subdivision with great community perks including a 9-hole golf course just minutes away. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, this home offers comfort, convenience, and recreation all in one!

21. 2026-03-09
    price $75,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! Don't miss this home featuring a spacious covered deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—as well as a large storage shed for all your tools and toys. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space for pets or gardening. Situated on TWO LOTS, this property provides extra room and flexibility. Located in a desirable subdivision with great community perks including a 9-hole golf course just minutes away. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, this home offers comfort, convenience, and recreation all in one!

22. 2026-01-01
    listed $85,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! Don't miss this home featuring a spacious covered deck—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—as well as a large storage shed for all your tools and toys. The fully fenced backyard offers privacy and space for pets or gardening. Situated on TWO LOTS, this property provides extra room and flexibility. Located in a desirable subdivision with great community perks including a 9-hole golf course just minutes away. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a full-time residence, this home offers comfort, convenience, and recreation all in one!

23. 2025-12-22
    historical
24. 2025-12-03
    price $95,000
25. 2025-08-29
    price $105,000
26. 2025-07-10
    listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,170/yr (+$97/mo · 114.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $168
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$40
• After-tax cash flow: $2,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1405
• US rank: #24056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-91.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $9,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $105,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $115,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · -15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.