200 Santa Fe Dr #3 · Empire, CA 95319

$174,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,621 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home available at Pine Manor Mobile Home Park in Empire, CA. This modern home features spacious living areas, a bright kitchen, and a private backyard. Located in a peaceful park setting with easy access to local amenities. Don't miss out on this fresh, turnkey home. This is an all-age park.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Built 2025
• Listed 28 days

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• PEACEFUL PARK SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a mobile home park with street lighting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Parking available; Located in Pine Manor Mobile Home Park
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Natural gas available; Electric connected (220V in laundry)
• Home design: Mobile home (double-wide); Turnkey condition; Single-story; Raised foundation with pier/pillar support; Vinyl exterior and vinyl skirt; Entry level: 1; Private paved road frontage; Facing: front entry
• Construction: Vinyl construction materials; Raised pier/post/pier foundation; Double-wide body type; Mobile dimensions approx. 26' x 56'
• Exterior features: Awning; Patio; Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Granite counters; Refrigerator; Gas range and gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms on same (down) level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Shower-in-tub and walk-in shower; Laminate counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Granite counters; Blinds; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; One-level entry, front entrance
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a dedicated room; Washer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookup; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $588 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,013 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,374 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $132,785
• Equity at exit: $157,653

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.38×
• Total profit: $361,655
• Equity at exit: $339,985

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95319

• Home prices YoY: 33.7%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $648	+0% $588	+5% $527	+10% $467
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $498	+0% $588	+5% $678	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $632	base $588	+0.5pp $543	+1.0pp $496

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4705 Yosemite Blvd Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,275	$1.90	14d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,999 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,999 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,999 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,999 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,999 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,999 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,999 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,999 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,999 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,999 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,999 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,999 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,999 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,999 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,999 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $174,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $4,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $5,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. It's located in a peaceful park setting with easy access to local amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Empire

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #24920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Empire, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,580

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 46% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 140.38%
• Current HPI: 557.0645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $174,999 CRMLS