500 N Tully #64 · Turlock, CA 95380

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · — sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1991 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious double-wide home located in a beautiful 55+ community park. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home offers a comfortable layout with an inside laundry room for added convenience. Enjoy covered parking with space for up to four vehicles. A wonderful opportunity to enjoy peaceful community living with plenty of room and functionality.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1991
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is within Westfork Estates; seller-provided living area; Directions: From CA-99, take Fulkerth Rd exit, turn right onto N Tully Rd. Turn left into mobile home park.
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Westfork Estates mobile home park
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 24 ft by 48 ft
• Construction: Year built reported by seller
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Lot classified as 0–1 unit per acre; Suburban community

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Side entry; Entry on level 1
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.30%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,000
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 72.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1270 Magic Sands Way	0.36mi	2/2.0	895	3mo	$75,000	$84	68
1228 Magic Sands	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,098	9mo	$83,000	$76	65
1400 N Tully Rd #121	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,440	0mo	$110,000	$76	61
1400 N Tully Rd #168	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,500	2mo	$114,950	$77	60
1400 N Tully Rd #91	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,492	3mo	$85,000	$57	60
1400 Tully Rd #120	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,800	3mo	$65,500	$36	59
1400 N Tully Rd #137	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,536	5mo	$113,000	$74	58
1400 N Tully #187	0.54mi	2/1.0	868	2mo	$58,000	$67	57
1400 N Tully Rd #2	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,250	9mo	$74,000	$59	54
1400 N Tully Rd #173	0.55mi	2/1.0	672	5mo	$59,000	$88	54
1400 N Tully Rd #111	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,584	10mo	$118,000	$74	53
1400 N Tully Rd #32	0.55mi	2/1.0	672	10mo	$71,000	$106	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,080
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $42,551
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $595	+0% $551	+5% $506	+10% $462
Rent	-10% $407	-5% $479	+0% $551	+5% $623	+10% $695
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $584	base $551	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1101 Park St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	14d	1	0.48mi
1055 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,000	$1.56	44d	1	0.79mi
920 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	14d	1	0.82mi
720 S Soderquist Rd Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	—	$2,300	—	14d	1	0.86mi
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,795	$2.01	14d	1	0.90mi
731 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	14d	1	0.91mi
585 South Ave Unit 585 Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,395	—	14d	1	1.13mi
402 S Laurel St Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$2,200	$1.91	14d	1	1.17mi
295 South Ave Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	751	$1,595	$2.12	14d	1	1.26mi
217 Angelus St Unit 3 Turlock, CA	1.0	1.0	300	$1,550	$5.17	14d	1	1.27mi
121 Starr Ave Unit C Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,500	—	14d	1	1.31mi
2541 Carnival Dr Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,295	$1.75	44d	1	1.35mi
1020 W Minnesota Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.43mi
90 Pedras Rd Turlock, CA	2.0	1.0	870	$1,650	$1.90	14d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $129,000 Active 367-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,753
• − Management: −$1,753
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $5,447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This double-wide manufactured home in a 55+ community park is in good condition with minor repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and covered parking, making it a great opportunity for a comfortable living space.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures
• Minor landscaping — some overgrown plants

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet with hardwood flooring — increases both resale and rental value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · standard fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · some overgrown plants	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet with hardwood flooring — increases both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $129,000 CRMLS