8344 Big Oak Dr · Citrus Heights, CA 95610

$179,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,228 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 2004 $146/sqft · 40% above area Est $128k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own the Dream! Tucked inside the award-winning Big Oak Senior Mobile Home Park, this beautifully cared-for 2004-built, 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable, easy living in a welcoming Owner-Occupied community. With 1,228 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space, this move-in-ready home has a warm and inviting feel from the moment you arrive. The covered front porch is the kind of spot where you'll want to start your mornings with coffee or wind down in the evenings visiting with neighbors. Inside, the home feels bright and open with laminate flooring, comfortable living spaces, and a layout that just works for everyday life. The living and dining areas connect nicely, making it easy to ent

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open-concept design
• Eat-at bar

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• STYLISH LAMINATE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• EAT-AT BAR
• CLOSET PANTRY
• FRESHLY PAINTED CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.32%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,077
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: 40.15%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8344 Big Oak Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,228 (0%)	1mo	$162,500	$132	100
8351 Big Oak Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	6mo	$135,000	$113	89
8008 Eucalyptus Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	3mo	$155,000	$135	79
8321 Driftwood Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	1mo	$122,500	$91	76
8009 Creekfront Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	9mo	$115,840	$86	73
8313 Oak Front Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	19mo	$75,000	$60	70
8412 Big Oak Dr #170	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	0mo	$142,000	$101	67
8323 Oak Front Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+11%)	5mo	$159,000	$116	66
8012 Aspen Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,358 (+11%)	18mo	$125,000	$92	62
8351 Cedarwood Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (+11%)	14mo	$120,000	$88	60
8003 Oakside Ln	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	9mo	$85,000	$61	58
8409 Big Oak Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	15mo	$245,000	$175	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,398
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $68,680
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95610

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,117 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,357

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7898 Claypool Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	17d	1	0.24mi
8629 El Sobrante Way Orangevale, CA	3.0	2.0	1117	$2,500	$2.24	43d	1	0.66mi
7517 Saint Philomena Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1100	$2,500	$2.27	14d	1	0.84mi
7347 Cross Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,290	$3.05	43d	1	0.85mi
8208 Charlotte Ave Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,750	$1.96	7d	1	0.88mi
1911 Wildwood Way Apt 1 Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	1d	1	1.15mi
7522 Sunrise Blvd Unit 210 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	43d	1	1.26mi
8237 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	7d	1	1.31mi
7849 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$1,800	$2.14	7d	1	1.33mi
7840 Antelope Rd Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,675	$1.99	43d	1	1.37mi
1812A S Cirby Way Unit B Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	1d	1	1.38mi
7429 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.5	1319	$2,000	$1.52	43d	1	1.42mi
7887 Vistaridge Dr Unit 1 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	848	$1,950	$2.30	4d	1	1.43mi
7887 Vistaridge Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	848	$1,950	$2.30	2d	1	1.43mi
7885 Vistaridge Dr Unit 1 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	848	$2,000	$2.36	4d	1	1.43mi
7885 Vista Ridge Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	848	$2,000	$2.36	3d	1	1.43mi
7444 Tiara Way Unit D Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,850	$1.81	43d	1	1.44mi
7856 Old Auburn Rd Apt 8 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	20d	1	1.45mi
7441 Tiara Way Unit A Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,295	$1.45	23d	1	1.48mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,364 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$692/yr (+$58/mo · 103.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,032
• − Management: −$2,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable income: $4,488
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,077
• After-tax cash flow: $6,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,928
• Household income: $83,327
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1772.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -367.16%
• Current HPI: 325.0105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · -9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.