193 Scott Lake Rd · Pontiac, MI 48328

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 995 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1951 7,405 sqft lot Est $213k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

We are now in a Multiple Offer situation. Highest and Best is due by Tuesday 5 PM. Fantastic 3 Bedroom, 1.1 Bath, Finished Basement, Fenced Yard with Patio & 1.5 Car Garage with Brand New Door. Beautiful Area in Waterford, Perfect for 1st Time Buyer or someone downsizing. Hardwood Floors in Living Room & Bedrooms. Awesome Remodeled Bathroom. Comes with Appliances, Newer Roof, Electric Panel Updated (2019), Furnace (2019). Extra space for storage in finished basement. Easy showings with immediate occupancy.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Remodeled bathroom
• Newer roof

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• FENCED YARD
• PATIO
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEWER ROOF
• ELECTRIC PANEL UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-886/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Waterford School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #285 of 540 in MI (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,927 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,930
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
343 N Tilmor Dr W	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,053 (+6%)	16mo	$235,000	$223	66
2718 Corey St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,034 (+4%)	4mo	$225,000	$218	57
454 Tilmor Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,053 (+6%)	22mo	$225,500	$214	56
2941 Voorheis Rd	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	846 (-15%)	18mo	$200,000	$236	47
120 Marion Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,124 (+13%)	15mo	$198,000	$176	43
1160 Boston Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-15%)	5mo	$150,000	$176	37
1124 Holbrook Ave	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	851 (-14%)	9mo	$155,000	$182	32
1114 Holbrook Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+13%)	22mo	$200,000	$179	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-37,146
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-38,615
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48328

• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,520/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $186,861

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-17	+0% $-74	+5% $-130	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-133	+0% $-74	+5% $-15	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-23	base $-74	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2750 Cherokee Dr Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	1000	$1,389	$1.39	1d	8	0.43mi
950 Village Green Ln Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$1,294	$1.60	3d	12	0.81mi
995 Lakeview St Waterford, MI	2.0	1.5	884	$1,375	$1.56	26d	1	1.05mi
170 Leslie Ln Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,320	$1.51	0d	5	1.05mi
850 Williamsbury Ct Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,283	$1.58	1d	23	1.20mi
805 S Winding Dr Waterford, MI	4.0	1.0	1040	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	1.32mi
3530 Denise Ct Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	890	$1,975	$2.22	0d	15	1.34mi
3530 Denise Ct Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1004	$1,910	$1.90	25d	15	1.34mi
60 Waldo St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	7d	1	1.48mi
38 Spokane Dr Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	1.48mi
3325 Watkins Lake Rd Waterford Twp, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$1,199	$1.33	5d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   We are now in a Multiple Offer situation. Highest and Best is due by Tuesday 5 PM. Fantastic 3 Bedroom, 1.1 Bath, Finished Basement, Fenced Yard with Patio & 1.5 Car Garage with Brand New Door. Beautiful Area in Waterford, Perfect for 1st Time Buyer or someone downsizing. Hardwood Floors in Living Room & Bedrooms. Awesome Remodeled Bathroom. Comes with Appliances, Newer Roof, Electric Panel Updated (2019), Furnace (2019). Extra space for storage in finished basement. Easy showings with immediate occupancy.

2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   We are now in a Multiple Offer situation. Highest and Best is due by Tuesday 5 PM. Fantastic 3 Bedroom, 1.1 Bath, Finished Basement, Fenced Yard with Patio & 1.5 Car Garage with Brand New Door. Beautiful Area in Waterford, Perfect for 1st Time Buyer or someone downsizing. Hardwood Floors in Living Room & Bedrooms. Awesome Remodeled Bathroom. Comes with Appliances, Newer Roof, Electric Panel Updated (2019), Furnace (2019). Extra space for storage in finished basement. Easy showings with immediate occupancy.

3. 2026-04-08
   listed $199,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   We are now in a Multiple Offer situation. Highest and Best is due by Tuesday 5 PM. Fantastic 3 Bedroom, 1.1 Bath, Finished Basement, Fenced Yard with Patio & 1.5 Car Garage with Brand New Door. Beautiful Area in Waterford, Perfect for 1st Time Buyer or someone downsizing. Hardwood Floors in Living Room & Bedrooms. Awesome Remodeled Bathroom. Comes with Appliances, Newer Roof, Electric Panel Updated (2019), Furnace (2019). Extra space for storage in finished basement. Easy showings with immediate occupancy.

4. 2026-04-08
   listed $199,900 Active 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   We are now in a Multiple Offer situation. Highest and Best is due by Tuesday 5 PM. Fantastic 3 Bedroom, 1.1 Bath, Finished Basement, Fenced Yard with Patio & 1.5 Car Garage with Brand New Door. Beautiful Area in Waterford, Perfect for 1st Time Buyer or someone downsizing. Hardwood Floors in Living Room & Bedrooms. Awesome Remodeled Bathroom. Comes with Appliances, Newer Roof, Electric Panel Updated (2019), Furnace (2019). Extra space for storage in finished basement. Easy showings with immediate occupancy.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$779/yr (+$65/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,520
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterford School District
• NCES district ID: 2635310
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,581
• Composite: 29.99/100
• National rank: #6364
• State rank: #285 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pontiac

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #14703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 44,593
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,478
• Household income: $72,299
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1013.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -249.13%
• Current HPI: 191.2771
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,520 · +21.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.