108 Heron Bay · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,977 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1988 0.61 ac lot Est $384k · 17% over $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Custom ContemporaryEnjoy the stunning open floor plan with lots of glass in this contemporary getaway with seasonal lakeview. Featuring 3 bedrooms 2 baths with master bedroom suite and Jacuzzi bath. Kitchen has granite counters and stainless appliances with breakfast counter, living/dining area with cathedral ceilings, beautiful hardwood floors and lots of glass. Large sunroom with custom french doors. Large open entertaining decks, 2 plus two car garage and more. a home you'll never want to leave. .. .. call today NEW ROOF

Key facts

• Seasonal lakeview
• Stainless appliances
• Jacuzzi bath

Tags

• SEASONAL LAKEVIEW
• MASTER BEDROOM SUITE
• JACUZZI BATH
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST COUNTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $409k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $409k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $408,544 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,538
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
809 Widgeon Ct	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,911 (-3%)	6mo	$730,000	$382	76
104 Summer Hill Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,064 (+4%)	1mo	$330,000	$160	72
806 Wren Ct	0.22mi	3/2.5	2,130 (+8%)	4mo	$228,000	$107	72
107 Long Spur Ln	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,010 (+2%)	6mo	$430,000	$214	71
107 Rimrock Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+1%)	5mo	$250,000	$125	60
803 Fetlock Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,837 (-7%)	7mo	$290,000	$158	59
125 Broadmoor Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,152 (+9%)	5mo	$335,000	$156	58
803 Widgeon Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,152 (+9%)	8mo	$702,500	$326	57
216 Canoebrook Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,083 (+5%)	1mo	$405,000	$194	55
801 Saddlebrook Spur Spur	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-13%)	4mo	$550,500	$319	51
106 Fetlock Dr	0.40mi	3/3.0	1,700 (-14%)	7mo	$255,000	$150	48
118 Ledgeway Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-13%)	8mo	$399,999	$233	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $250,913
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $734,098
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,043/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$858
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,960

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $353	-5% $226	+0% $99	+5% $-28	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-62	+0% $99	+5% $260	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $213	base $99	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	2d	1	0.37mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	0d	1	0.90mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	5d	1	1.19mi
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	0d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $449,000 Active
3. 2026-01-06
   status Active
4. 2025-12-04
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-04
   status Active
6. 2025-10-17
   status Active
7. 2025-10-04
   status Pending
8. 2025-09-25
   price $425,000
9. 2025-07-14
   status Active
10. 2025-06-15
    status Pending
11. 2025-04-19
    status Active
12. 2025-04-16
    listed $449,000 Active
13. 2024-09-06
    status Active
14. 2024-08-23
    status Pending
15. 2024-07-13
    listed $459,000 Active
16. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus
17. 2020-12-31
    soldstatus $310,000
18. 2020-11-12
    listed $389,000
19. 2020-11-12
    listed $389,000
20. 2000-02-07
    soldstatus $221,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,043 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,569 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,526/yr (+$127/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$4,043
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,922
• − Management: −$3,922
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$6,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,517
• After-tax cash flow: $2,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+103.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $449,000 PWMLS
• 2026-01-06 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-12-04 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-10-04 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-14 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-06-15 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-04-19 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $449,000 PWMLS
• 2024-09-06 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-08-23 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-07-13 Listed $459,000 PWMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $310,000 PWMLS
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2020-11-12 Listed $389,000 PWMLS
• 2020-11-12 Listed $389,000 PWMLS
• 2000-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $221,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,043 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.