73 Chickadee Dr · Chelsea, AL 35147

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Other · 223 Days on market

Built 2010 1.78 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 73 Chickadee Drive located on Old 280 and zoned for Chelsea schools! NO HOA! This spacious home has 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms spread out over 2,100sqft. The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, all appliances, walk-in pantry, eat-in area and access to the back porch. The massive living room has a woodburning fireplace and is open to the kitchen. Private master bedroom with huge walk-in closet and built-in shelves. The master bath has a large garden tub, separate shower and double sinks. The 3 additional bedrooms all have walk-in closets and share a full bath. Enjoy the privacy from the open back porch overlooking almost 2 acres of wooded land.

Key facts

• No hoa
• Walk-in pantry
• 1.78 acre lot

Tags

• ZONED FOR CHELSEA SCHOOLS
• NO HOA
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• ACCESS TO THE BACK PORCH
• WOODBURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE MASTER BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 4.1% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#52 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $32,752
• Equity at exit: $65,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $103,434
• Equity at exit: $84,138

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35147

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,171 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $616	-5% $560	+0% $503	+5% $446	+10% $390
Rent	-10% $331	-5% $417	+0% $503	+5% $589	+10% $675
Rate	-1.0pp $604	-0.5pp $554	base $503	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Chelsea Park Rd Chelsea, AL	5.0	3.0	2382	$2,150	$0.90	17d	1	0.85mi
173 Chelsea Park Rd Chelsea, AL	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,070	$1.22	4d	1	0.91mi
464 Crossbridge Rd Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.5	1858	$2,175	$1.17	12d	1	0.92mi
224 Park Crest Run Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,195	$1.24	4d	1	1.10mi
4072 Park Crossings Dr Chelsea, AL	4.0	2.5	2344	$2,296	$0.98	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,900 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 208 DOM
13. 2025-11-04
    listed $199,900 Active 673-char remark

    Show marketing remark (673 chars)

    Welcome to 73 Chickadee Drive located on Old 280 and zoned for Chelsea schools! NO HOA! This spacious home has 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms spread out over 2,100sqft. The kitchen has tons of counter and cabinet space, all appliances, walk-in pantry, eat-in area and access to the back porch. The massive living room has a woodburning fireplace and is open to the kitchen. Private master bedroom with huge walk-in closet and built-in shelves. The master bath has a large garden tub, separate shower and double sinks. The 3 additional bedrooms all have walk-in closets and share a full bath. Enjoy the privacy from the open back porch overlooking almost 2 acres of wooded land.

14. 2025-05-09
    price $200,000
15. 2025-03-26
    price $205,000
16. 2025-02-27
    price $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,084
• − Management: −$2,084
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$697
• After-tax cash flow: $5,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #8363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,068
• Population (ZIP): 6,971

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Current HPI: 200.0103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Listed $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $200,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $205,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $215,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+89.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.