134 Ponderosa Way · Sanger, TX 76266

$76,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 219 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your brand new 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home, now available in a peaceful country community where comfort meets convenience. Surrounded by quiet charm yet close to everything you need, this home offers the perfect blend of relaxation and accessibility. Step inside to discover a bright, open floor plan designed for modern living. Natural light flows through the spacious living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting atmosphere ideal for both everyday life and effortless entertaining. The contemporary kitchen features sleek finishes and ample storage, making meal prep a pleasure. The primary suite provides a private retreat with its own full bath and generous closet

Key facts

• Chef kitchen
• Large island
• Sleek countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing price: $76,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section, 3 bed / 2 bath plan; Spec new construction
• Exterior features: Living area: 1,216 (living space)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $908 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.5% vs local median 3.6% in Sanger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#958 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sanger ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #281 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 322 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.60%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $41,045
• Equity at exit: $11,466

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $93,316
• Equity at exit: $6,649

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76266

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $908

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Preston Dr Unit PREST102 Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,479	$1.30	24d	1	0.11mi
119 Ponderosa Way Unit POND119 Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,549	$1.34	43d	1	0.26mi
821 Vernon Ct Sanger, TX	3.0	1.0	1077	$1,800	$1.67	3d	1	0.27mi
1806 Sand Stone Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,100	$1.42	24d	1	0.28mi
134 Ponderosa Way Unit POND134 Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,549	$1.27	24d	1	0.28mi
114 Southmanor Ct Sanger, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,675	$1.40	12d	1	0.30mi
202 Carolyn Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,581	$1.25	7d	1	0.33mi
2012 Benjamin Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$2,095	$1.72	43d	1	0.49mi
204 Hillcrest St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,875	$1.44	43d	1	0.56mi
2029 Laney Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$2,000	$1.65	3d	1	0.61mi
140 Ringneck Dr Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,785	$1.22	20d	1	0.72mi
1102 First St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,999	$1.44	2d	1	0.94mi
203 W Willow St Sanger, TX	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,650	$1.45	12d	1	0.97mi
105 S 3rd St Sanger, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	24d	1	0.97mi
2014 Jackson LN Sanger, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$2,428	$2.14	1d	40	1.26mi
909 N 6th St Sanger, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	12d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $76,900 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,900 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 201 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $10,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $8,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sanger ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839180
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,803
• Composite: 37.76/100
• National rank: #4349
• State rank: #281 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sanger

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #958
• US rank: #16973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanger, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 18,155
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,155
• Household income: $99,425
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 325.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.07%
• Current HPI: 284.2146
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B