2411 Ferry Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$80,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1912 3,360 sqft lot Est $139k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well kept 2 units On Ferry ave. 3/2 double. .. Very nice tenant occupied and keep it clean. .. Roof 2000,One furnace and 2 ele. the tenant pays $650/mo. Sold AS IS. .. The buyer pays search and survey update to the property. .. The owner wants to sell this and one other property to close the business. Pl. bring your offer. .. .

Key facts

• Stable rental income
• Off-street parking
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• STABLE RENTAL INCOME
• INCOME-PRODUCING ASSET
• FUTURE OWNER-OCCUPANCY

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $80,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$139,392) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $639 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 7.5% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,584/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $80k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.25%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 23rd St	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+6%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	80
605 29th St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-6%)	3mo	$130,000	$98	62
542 30th St	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,370 (-3%)	14mo	$130,000	$95	61
545 29th St	0.31mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,270 (-10%)	5mo	$126,000	$99	60
2240 Whitney Ave	0.67mi	5/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	10mo	$134,000	$97	57
3510 Chapin Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (+10%)	3mo	$184,900	$120	52
2746 Welch Ave	0.37mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,305 (-7%)	14mo	$84,900	$65	50
435 13th St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (+7%)	2mo	$40,000	$26	49
2767 Welch Ave	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-14%)	12mo	$165,000	$136	42
1716 Ashland Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-8%)	12mo	$66,000	$51	38
2412 Pierce Ave	0.73mi	5/1.5	1,602 (+14%)	8mo	$160,000	$100	34
2423 Whitney Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-15%)	11mo	$169,000	$141	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.14×
• Total profit: $92,714
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.7%
• Equity multiple: 12.69×
• Total profit: $261,860
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,906/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $662	+0% $639	+5% $617	+10% $594
Rent	-10% $514	-5% $577	+0% $639	+5% $702	+10% $764
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $660	base $639	+0.5pp $619	+1.0pp $597

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.40mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	18d	1	0.55mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	0.59mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $80,000
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $90,000 Active
4. 2015-02-27
   soldstatus $29,000
5. 2014-11-25
   soldstatus $22,000 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Well kept 2 units On Ferry ave. 3/2 double. .. Very nice tenant occupied and keep it clean. .. Roof 2000,One furnace and 2 ele. the tenant pays $650/mo. Sold AS IS. .. The buyer pays search and survey update to the property. .. The owner wants to sell this and one other property to close the business. Pl. bring your offer. .. .

6. 2014-05-03
   listed $29,900 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Well kept 2 units On Ferry ave. 3/2 double. .. Very nice tenant occupied and keep it clean. .. Roof 2000,One furnace and 2 ele. the tenant pays $650/mo. Sold AS IS. .. The buyer pays search and survey update to the property. .. The owner wants to sell this and one other property to close the business. Pl. bring your offer. .. .

7. 2010-08-25
   soldstatus $7,500 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   Upper and lower two unit. Lower has three bedrooms, upper has two. Both units have eat-in kitchens.

8. 2010-07-16
   listed $9,900 99-char remark

   Show marketing remark (99 chars)

   Upper and lower two unit. Lower has three bedrooms, upper has two. Both units have eat-in kitchens.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,906
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,643
• After-tax cash flow: $6,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+708.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2015-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-25 Sold (MLS) $22,000 WNYREIS
• 2014-05-03 Listed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2010-08-25 Sold (MLS) $7,500 WNYREIS
• 2010-07-16 Listed $9,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,906 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.