16939 Marie Village Dr · Deerwood, TX 77306

$164,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 2,809 sqft lot $144/sqft · 7% below area Est $177k · 7% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lowest price home per square foot in the neighborhood! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the spacious covered front porch, while inside you’ll find durable, low-maintenance vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas. The kitchen is designed to impress with granite countertops, an undermount sink, and crisp white cabinetry, plus an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers privacy and comfort, while upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom—perfect for family or guests. Even better, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making your move seamless. Located within Conroe ISD, this home checks all the boxes. Schedule your showing today—this one won’t last long!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Vinyl flooring
• Undermount sink

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UNDERMOUNT SINK
• WHITE CABINETRY
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $164k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-656/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (5.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 34% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,630 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,940
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -7.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9706 Marie Village Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	2mo	$167,900	$150	84
9900 Opal Stone Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+3%)	9mo	$181,000	$155	83
16955 Marie Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+9%)	5mo	$170,000	$137	80
16842 N N Marie Village Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-12%)	3mo	$159,900	$160	70
15597 Briar Forest Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	13mo	$202,950	$167	64
16348 Jasmine Marie Pl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-12%)	9mo	$192,500	$193	64
16515 Jasmine Marie Pl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,255 (+10%)	10mo	$177,000	$141	64
16737 N Marie Village Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+10%)	18mo	$209,000	$166	63
16811 North Marie Vlg	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,023 (-10%)	18mo	$184,990	$181	62
16499 Valerie Marie Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,000 (-12%)	11mo	$199,999	$200	62
15515 Taylorcrest Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+7%)	10mo	$200,000	$164	62
16635 Colleen Pl	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-12%)	8mo	$139,900	$140	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,957
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,834
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,248/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $154,844

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-8	+0% $-55	+5% $-101	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-121	+0% $-55	+5% $12	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-13	base $-55	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15581 Briar Forest Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,545	$1.10	0d	1	0.28mi
10050 Cerritos Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,499	$1.07	26d	1	0.41mi
6621 W Forest Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	45d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,500 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,500 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,500 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,500 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,500 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,500 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,500 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,500 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,500 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,500 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $164,500 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Lowest price home per square foot in the neighborhood! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the spacious covered front porch, while inside you’ll find durable, low-maintenance vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas. The kitchen is designed to impress with granite countertops, an undermount sink, and crisp white cabinetry, plus an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers privacy and comfort, while upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom—perfect for family or guests. Even better, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making your move seamless. Located within Conroe ISD, this home checks all the boxes. Schedule your showing today—this one won’t last long!

16. 2026-04-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Lowest price home per square foot in the neighborhood! Enjoy relaxing mornings on the spacious covered front porch, while inside you’ll find durable, low-maintenance vinyl flooring throughout the main living areas. The kitchen is designed to impress with granite countertops, an undermount sink, and crisp white cabinetry, plus an outdoor storage shed for added convenience. The first-floor primary suite offers privacy and comfort, while upstairs features two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom—perfect for family or guests. Even better, the refrigerator, washer, and dryer are all included, making your move seamless. Located within Conroe ISD, this home checks all the boxes. Schedule your showing today—this one won’t last long!

17. 2026-04-02
    price $164,500
18. 2025-11-18
    price $179,000
19. 2025-10-25
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2024-02-09
    historical $1,600
21. 2024-02-09
    historical
22. 2024-02-02
    listed $185,000 Active
23. 2024-01-31
    historical
24. 2023-12-12
    price $1,600
25. 2023-11-15
    listed $1,700
26. 2023-09-29
    price $185,000
27. 2023-08-30
    listed $190,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,248 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,248 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$5,248
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable loss: −$3,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$790
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern updates, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Trim and paint front porch — Improves first impression
• Resale Replace outdoor light fixtures — Modernizes exterior lighting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Trim and paint front porch — Improves first impression ↑
• Resale Replace outdoor light fixtures — Modernizes exterior lighting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deerwood

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $164,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-02 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Listed $190,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+46.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,248 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.