384-A Lake Shr S Unit A · Milford, PA 07827

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $123/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy lakefront living and a resort-style lifestyle in this 2-bedroom, 1-bath ground-floor condo on Holiday Lake. This unit is located in a nice 6-unit building comprised of all owner-residents. Featuring 1,144 sq. ft. of open living space, this move-in-ready home has all new carpeting and paint throughout, plus an updated kitchen with new cabinetry and granite countertops. Sliding glass doors open to a covered 16' x 12' private patio where you can relax and take in peaceful lake views just steps from the water. Additional features include a private entrance (3 steps), assigned parking plus guest parking, washer/dryer closet, ample storage, and public water and sewer. Community amenities in

Key facts

• $123 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include pool, playground, tennis courts and lake privileges
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $123; Association fee includes common area maintenance and additional items (see remarks); Other periodic fee: $150; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned off-street parking (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water (charges may apply); Public sewer (charges may apply); Fiber optic available; Garbage: extra charge
• Home design: One-floor, first floor unit; Located on the 1st floor; Approximate year built: approximate; Renovated in 2025
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Approximate construction date
• Exterior features: Patio; Association outdoor pool; Lakefront setting; Lake privileges; Playground; Tennis courts

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the ground level
• Flooring: Carpeting; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Cooling: see remarks
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with separate dining area; Patio access; Community living
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-116/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#255 in PA, #2,230 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, commute F.
• Montague Township School District (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #400 of 612 in NJ (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Montague Township School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #878 of 1,303 statewide, top 70%, 310 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Montague Township School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $179,681 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-31,138
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,490
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07827

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$123
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $187,603

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $56	+0% $-10	+5% $-75	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-81	+0% $-10	+5% $61	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $38	base $-10	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $123 · $1,476/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $189,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 694-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $189,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − HOA: −$1,476
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This ground-floor open-floorplan condo is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting the exterior siding and replacing any damaged windows would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value.
• Both Replace any damaged windows — Replacing damaged windows will improve the energy efficiency and increase the resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace any damaged windows — Replacing damaged windows will improve the energy efficiency and increase the resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montague Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410530
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,366
• Composite: 43.98/100
• National rank: #6267
• State rank: #400 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Milford

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #2230

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 15,799
• Population (ZIP): 4,111

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,413 people
• By 2030: 127,324 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 113,987 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 100,391 · -24.8%
• By 2075: 78,063 · -41.5%
• By 2100: 62,346 · -53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.6% · R 61.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.89%
• Current HPI: 290.6237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $189,000 GSMLS