28473 Pinon Ct · Winchester, CA 92596

$599,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2022 10,019 sqft lot Est $614k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Prime single-story, corner lot home sitting on a 10,000+ sq. ft. lot w/ vaulted ceilings in the great room! Located in Winchester just bordering the City of Menifee. This home offers four bedrooms, three bathrooms…yes three bathrooms, and a bright open floor plan. The kitchen is just a vibe with quartz counter tops, a beautiful spacious island ready for meals or late-night chats AND you’ll be able to laugh & not miss a thing because of the open concept connecting you to all the action in the family & dining rooms. The bedrooms offer high ceilings & one of the bedrooms offers a walk-in closet…the primary bedroom is separate from the others, the primary b

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Open concept
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• OPEN CONCEPT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is a single-unit residence; Living area and year-built sourced from assessor data; Parcel number recorded
• Financial info: Special assessments / Mello-Roos
• HOA & community: Community features include curbs, street lighting, sidewalks and a park

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Driveway parking (total 2 parking spaces)
• Security: Security system; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Photovoltaic system (leased); Electricity on property and connected; Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Water connected (private water source); Cable available
• Home design: Single-story house; Turnkey condition; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Concrete slab foundation; House structure
• Exterior features: Front porch; Front yard; Sprinklers (front); Sprinklers system present; Located on a cul-de-sac; Has a view; Paved road access via city streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Breakfast counter/bar and formal dining area; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Range/stove hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main floor; All bedrooms on the ground level; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Double sinks in primary bath; Shower and shower-in-tub options; Exhaust fan(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Quartz counters; Ceiling fan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Roller window shields; Security system; Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-795 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $439k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $439k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in Winchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $64k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $60k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$103k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $439,030 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.68%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $614,304
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31312 Scrub Jay Rd	0.26mi	4/3.0	1,896 (0%)	4mo	$615,000	$324	84
30736 Thunderbird St	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,774 (-6%)	0mo	$575,000	$324	73
30894 Envision Ct	0.49mi	4/2.5	1,835 (-3%)	2mo	$565,000	$308	68
28858 Enclave	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,835 (-3%)	2mo	$575,000	$313	67
30562 Via Del Cielo	0.71mi	4/3.0	1,890 (-0%)	1mo	$615,990	$326	66
30581 Via Del Cielo	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,890 (-0%)	1mo	$609,990	$323	65
30526 Via Del Cielo	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,890 (-0%)	1mo	$620,990	$329	64
30551 Via Del Cielo	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,890 (-0%)	1mo	$613,055	$324	64
30795 Draco Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+9%)	3mo	$579,990	$282	63
30576 Corte Hermoso	0.74mi	4/3.0	1,890 (-0%)	3mo	$619,990	$328	63
30724 Charger Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,059 (+9%)	5mo	$603,990	$293	60
29224 Outback Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-8%)	2mo	$595,000	$341	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $263,376
• Equity at exit: $540,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.72×
• Total profit: $792,642
• Equity at exit: $1,165,474

Cash invested: $167,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$867 /mo · $10,406/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$922
• Net cashflow: $-795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,396

Max offer price $459,507

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-455	-5% $-625	+0% $-795	+5% $-965	+10% $-1,134
Rent	-10% $-1,142	-5% $-968	+0% $-795	+5% $-621	+10% $-448
Rate	-1.0pp $-493	-0.5pp $-642	base $-795	+0.5pp $-950	+1.0pp $-1,108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,975
• Closing costs: $17,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	0d	1	0.07mi
30812 Malibu Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,995	$2.18	25d	1	0.35mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	16d	1	0.35mi
30826 Grand Prix Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1375	$2,850	$2.07	25d	1	0.36mi
30816 Viper Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$3,249	$2.05	5d	1	0.41mi
30547 Operetta St Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1567	$3,100	$1.98	19d	1	0.42mi
30622 Dart Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1378	$4,300	$3.12	2d	1	0.42mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	11d	1	0.78mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	16d	1	1.09mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	0d	1	1.14mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	21d	1	1.14mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	8d	1	1.15mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	21d	1	1.15mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	21d	1	1.16mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	21d	1	1.16mi
29502 Marx Way Menifee, CA	3.0	2.5	1469	$3,150	$2.14	0d	1	1.16mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	8d	1	1.17mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	44d	1	1.18mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	16d	1	1.21mi
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	13d	1	1.24mi
32333 Wild West Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	44d	1	1.39mi
29335 Adams St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2419	$3,500	$1.45	44d	1	1.40mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	3d	1	1.46mi
32376 Tyron Smith Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2590	$3,500	$1.35	8d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $599,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $599,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $600,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $600,000 Active
16. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus $6,637,091
17. 2013-06-20
    soldstatus $2,628,000
18. 2009-12-31
    soldstatus $2,400,000
19. 2008-10-15
    soldstatus $4,545,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,406 · $867/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,406 · $867/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,684
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,604
• − Property taxes: −$10,406
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,215
• − Management: −$4,215
• − Depreciation: −$17,452
• Taxable loss: −$20,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-86.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $600,000 CRMLS
• 2021-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,637,091 Public Records
• 2013-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $2,628,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $2,400,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $4,545,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,406 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.