26573 Fawn Dr · Hempstead, TX 77445

$118,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1984 0.55 ac lot $107/sqft · 41% below area Est $202k · 41% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity!! Welcome to a spacious and mainly cleared half acre property located in the peaceful countryside of Hempstead. The property currently features a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a half acre lot. Home needs TLC, updates and renovations, all utilities in place. Conveniently located with easy access to Highway 6 and 290, this property is close to both Hempstead and Waller, making it easy to enjoy rural living while still being within reach of modern amenities. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, 26573 Fawn Drive offers endless potential in a serene and picturesque setting. New homes all around in a gated country subdivision with amenities within neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own this wonderful piece of Texas countryside!

Key facts

• Half acre property
• Serene setting
• 0.55 acre lot

Tags

• HALF ACRE PROPERTY
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 6
• GATED COUNTRY SUBDIVISION
• AMENITIES WITHIN NEIGHBORHOOD
• SERENE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,099 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 425 active listings in the ZIP; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $118k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,380 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.43%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,503
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -41.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $82,579
• Equity at exit: $106,304

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.93×
• Total profit: $228,837
• Equity at exit: $229,248

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77445

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,031

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $354	-5% $321	+0% $287	+5% $254	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $232	+0% $287	+5% $342	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $317	base $287	+0.5pp $257	+1.0pp $226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $118,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Investor Opportunity!! Welcome to a spacious and mainly cleared half acre property located in the peaceful countryside of Hempstead. The property currently features a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a half acre lot. Home needs TLC, updates and renovations, all utilities in place. Conveniently located with easy access to Highway 6 and 290, this property is close to both Hempstead and Waller, making it easy to enjoy rural living while still being within reach of modern amenities. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity, 26573 Fawn Drive offers endless potential in a serene and picturesque setting. New homes all around in a gated country subdivision with amenities within neighborhood. Don’t miss your chance to own this wonderful piece of Texas countryside!

16. 2025-11-24
    historical
17. 2025-07-13
    price $118,000
18. 2025-05-23
    price $139,000
19. 2025-01-08
    price $149,000
20. 2024-10-29
    listed $175,000 Active
21. 2009-12-02
    soldstatus $41,500
22. 2009-11-24
    soldstatus
23. 2009-07-30
    historical
24. 2009-01-20
    listed $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,159 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,338
• − Management: −$1,338
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $1,666
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$400
• After-tax cash flow: $3,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hempstead

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1099
• US rank: #19446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,943
• Population (ZIP): 14,943

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 34% White 32% Black 31% Two or more races 10% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.43%
• Current HPI: 359.93
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+138.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-29 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2009-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2009-11-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-01-20 Listed $49,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.