84 Middle Neck Rd · Flower Hill, NY 11576

$980,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1953 8,364 sqft lot $749/sqft · 17% below area Est $1183k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +7.7/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare to find 1 family split-level corner property on an oversized (88 x 120) lot with 9 on-site parking spaces in the prestigious neighborhood of Flower Hill. 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with finished basement. Close to Americana shopping mall, St Francis Hospital and many upscale shops, restaurants and Whole Foods market along Northern Blvd. Near Flower Hill Village Park and North Hempstead Country Club. Excellent Roslyn school district. This 1309 sq ft house is absolutely perfect as either a starter home or professional usage, such as doctor, lawyer, accountant etc. Excellent investment opportunity.

Key facts

• Oversized lot
• 8,364 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SPLIT-LEVEL CORNER PROPERTY
• OVERSIZED LOT
• ON-SITE PARKING SPACES
• PRESTIGIOUS NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEAR FLOWER HILL VILLAGE PARK
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $980k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $755k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $703k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $703k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Roslyn Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #28 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $80k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$128k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($921k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $575k; list at $980k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $702,582 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,183,260
• List price: $980,000
• Delta: -17.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $290,545
• Equity at exit: $710,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $903,499
• Equity at exit: $1,378,751

Cash invested: $274,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11576

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,139
• Tax from tax record: −$1,278 /mo · $15,334/yr
• Insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,475
• Net cashflow: $-1,275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,640

Max offer price $754,762

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $245,000
• Closing costs: $29,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1353 Old Northern Blvd Roslyn, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$4,750	$3.96	43d	1	1.01mi
94 Main St Roslyn, NY	3.0	2.5	1462	$9,200	$6.29	1d	1	1.08mi
109 Chase Rd Manhasset, NY	3.0	1.5	1392	$7,350	$5.28	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $980,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $980,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $980,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-03-11
   historical

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Rare to find 1 family split-level corner property on an oversized (88 x 120) lot with 9 on-site parking spaces in the prestigious neighborhood of Flower Hill. 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with finished basement. Close to Americana shopping mall, St Francis Hospital and many upscale shops, restaurants and Whole Foods market along Northern Blvd. Near Flower Hill Village Park and North Hempstead Country Club. Excellent Roslyn school district. This 1309 sq ft house is absolutely perfect as either a starter home or professional usage, such as doctor, lawyer, accountant etc. Excellent investment opportunity.

5. 2026-03-11
   listed $995,000 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Rare to find 1 family split-level corner property on an oversized (88 x 120) lot with 9 on-site parking spaces in the prestigious neighborhood of Flower Hill. 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with finished basement. Close to Americana shopping mall, St Francis Hospital and many upscale shops, restaurants and Whole Foods market along Northern Blvd. Near Flower Hill Village Park and North Hempstead Country Club. Excellent Roslyn school district. This 1309 sq ft house is absolutely perfect as either a starter home or professional usage, such as doctor, lawyer, accountant etc. Excellent investment opportunity.

6. 2026-02-03
   price $995,000
7. 2025-11-26
   price $1,030,000
8. 2025-09-02
   price $999,000
9. 2025-08-19
   listed $1,080,000 Active
10. 2024-02-16
    historical
11. 2024-01-09
    price $899,000
12. 2023-08-09
    price $975,000
13. 2023-06-09
    price $1,050,000
14. 2023-06-09
    status Active
15. 2023-05-08
    listed $1,299,000 Active
16. 2023-05-03
    historical
17. 2005-10-14
    soldstatus $575,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,334 · $1,278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,948 · $1,329/mo
• Expected delta: +$614/yr (+$51/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $84,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$54,895
• − Property taxes: −$15,334
• − Insurance: −$4,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,745
• − Management: −$6,745
• − Depreciation: −$28,509
• Taxable loss: −$32,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,876
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roslyn Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625050
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $128,640
• Composite: 77.26/100
• National rank: #101
• State rank: #28 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,796

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Korean 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.48%
• Current HPI: 305.952
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+73.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $1,030,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Listed $1,080,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $1,050,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Listed $1,299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-03 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $575,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,334 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.